Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 3 August 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3295 (3222)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
81 (72) 93 (91) 89 (75)
Allocation 0% (0%)


3 August: Another strong performance of the S&P outside of our risk parameters topping at 3303 and closing Monday at 3295. Our forecast remains unchanged with increasing chance of a financial bloodbath arriving on our doorstep. No Change.

24 July: Nu Guts no Glory. But in this case we will leave it to hardcore speculators and those with inner circle guarantees that unlimited funding continues to be pumped into equities by several large sovereign players and their wholesale and retail banking outlets. Monthly S&P looks similar (massive bearish divergence) to Platinum (massive bullish divergence) with this risk to price divergence on the cards (again). We simply believe that being in today’s equity markets is just not good for health generally and fuelled further by this Pandemic on our doorstep. Anyone owning a property and holding 10-25% of free assets in precious metals can afford to lose the rest and still be financially OK. The danger is with those who cannot afford a house or be active in even the smallest degree of wealth preservation. We live in a social dangerzone that can chase us for a long time. Looking at our world, that danger zone is being underestimated. No investment in the S&P or any other world index. Chapeau for those with the stomach to hold this risk and actually not lose money. Time will tell.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
43.71 (43.25)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
44 (38) 95 (96) 66 (65)
Allocation 50% (50%)


3 August:
Weekly overbought turning down, Monthly risk in uptrend, Daily risk turning up. A pause and Brent more likely not yet finished its current uptrend. Caution but no change for now as the gap needs to be filled and Medium term weekly likely to show bearish divergence before a turn given the extended length of the current uptrend.

24 July: Last week, Brent got even closer to filling the 45.24 gap peaking at 44.86 and 44.75 resp. on Tuesday and Thursday. With Daily in correction, Weekly very overbought and Monthly in a low risk uptrend we prefer to stay with the position at least until the March gap fills and all tools develop a clear overbought condition. The present picture could drive this market a lot further towards the downtrend reistance line now at 75.00. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
11270 (9600)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
64 (51) 80 (72) 72 (38)
Allocation 0% (0%)


3 August:
A strong performance in recent days has increased interest in this potential new asset class. The token still involves very high risk and we stay with the forecast that the gap at 2800 needs to be filled first. If even some of the biggest financial beneficiaries of early adoption say that this is a gamble, we should not change our risk awareness attitude to one of greed eyeing BTC at 100,000 or even 1,000,000.

24 July: BTC is just short of knocking against resistance at 9700 following a 5% rally in the last 72 hours. If that breaks it could develop strong speculative interest although we still favor the journey to a more stable much lower level in order to make Bitcoin a real challenge for fiat. Besides the regulatory issues that will arise. We actually love digital money but not for speculation or as a true hard asset safehaven like gold. The argument that Bitcoin and other crypto assets do not have custodian risk is a valid one. Whilst the strongest high profile media minds in this industry like Raoul Pal, Simon Dixon and Max Keiser argue their case based on huge monetary success, their narratives still relate to the market value of Bitcoin against FIAT currency. As we truly believe that a monetary reset is the end result of the present economic bubble it cannot be with a crypto asset that creates the same kind of extreme wealth for a few ‘lucky’ investors and without the military power necessary to engage the world. Just not that likely, so for now we stay out but with further increased interest in an awareness of digital money developments.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0780 (0.0780)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
75 virtual (75) 20 (20) 45 (45)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


3 August:
BEST is technically an arbitrage as commission can be paid in BEST and is charged at ,012 E versus the current price of 0,08. A 30% discount. As BEST tokens received as commission are burnt frequently it will increase the notional value of BEST every year. BEST owners paying commission with BEST tokens against trading crypto and precious metals via the Bitpanda exchange can also earn BEST tokens at no charge based on monhtly trading volume. The Bitpanda exchange, being fully regulated, is probably the better risk custodian for smaller investors in physical precious metals as fees are very reasonable. Precious metals bought are 100% backed by physical metal, be it Gold, Silver, Platinum or Palladium. This is a considered expert analysis. Smaller inverstors looking to protect some wealth by owning precious metals should definitely consider opening an account with BITPANDA.

24 July: Bitpanda’s BEST token is evidence of our interest in the digital world. If the investment works, which means just holding its own as an inflation proof asset we have succeeded. The reason is that BEST represents what we think could be an alternative digital token in this search for minimised custodian risk. We believe that a Financial Authority regulated organization in the digital asset space stands a good chance of becoming that alternative. Check out these smart young crypto entrepreneurs on Youtube and other popular social media channels. No Change.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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