Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 5 June2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 5 June 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3189 (3057)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
60 (49) 72 (63) 95 (95)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Listening to any influencer in Maintream or Alternative Media one detects a large element of caution regarding equities. This is not about individual stock opportunities, but about market risk. The risk of being whipsawed in these type of markets is extreme and holding on to this type of risk, with one’s own money, and with leveraged positions is unwise. Yet for most speculators and traders everything is measured by financial success ratios. The Monthly risk weight turned up again following an extreme extension of the strongest advance ever experienced in history. We certainly did not expect this and we shouldn’t have if only because unemployment data parameters used in the reporting appear suspect if so much imbalance shows to the monthly figure. We are looking at a V shaped recovery of the Standard and Poor’s index. Technical risk to resume a sharp downtrend remains very high as it has done since September/October 2018. Staying out of this market is a wiser and more balanced choice.

22 May: Big techs keep driving this S&P index higher with another 4% gain for the week. Fibonacci ratio’s can be interesting as targets in the right direction as many analysts have been referring to but they can be false as often as they can be ‘nearly’ spot on. As a trading tool these ratio’s cannot really be used unless confirmed by other strong tools. Weekly risk weight is up at 63 and looks to weigh heavy. It probably should have been more in overbought territory given the incredible S&P rebound. In this case it actually starts to give a much weaker feel to it. Monthly is still narrowly down which is also a monthly close. We would give this more meaning towards high risk of a strong correction or rather an inverted V shaped turnaround back to the secular S&P downtrend which started mid February. With daily in Overbought 95 risk weight and potential ending in bearish divergence, we remain 100% risk averse. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.07 (37.60)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
25 (18) 48 (41) 94 (89)
Allocation 50% (50%)


We are getting very close to filling the $45 gap and we’ve held that view and our position since the pandemic struck hard on energy commodities. Daily risk has turned down but should develop bearish divergence in its own time frame during the next 10 days or so, or fall hard with price correction and develop a bullish divergence versus the Weekly and Monhtly time frames. If this market continues strongly, fills the gap and takes medium term risk into an overbought level we may close the long position. If the market retraces we will likely hold until the gap is least filled. That being the most likely scenario historically. No Change.

22 May: With monthly risk weight in a strong uptrend at just 18 it is becoming increasingly likely that we may see Brent oil filling the gap down open at $45 on March 9. Price gaps are always filled and therefor trusted holds for investors if the exit is missed like in our own case. We’ll just have to be patient and find that preferred exit moment. By the same token we missed doubling onto a full allocation in the 20’s handles as the market became virtually untradeable and costly in short term derivatives. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9670 (9550)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
50 (44) 84 (82) 63 (68)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC stays largely within the Long term wide range 2017-2020 triangle. Investors see a safehaven function, but in the and this market has not shown any evidence of competing as a solid asset class. Technical risk does not look very favourable even though all time frame are trending up. If Daily gets into overbought territory a sharp drop could develop quickly towards the bottom of the triangle and beyond. We still expect that gap fill at 2800. That huge risk in itself is reason not to speculate in this market. For now at least. No Change.

22 May: BTC arguably look strong with all timeframes in an uptrend. So, on this technical scenario we might see that brief break of 10,000. Resistance through the 2 major peaks on Dec 2017 and June 2019 is at 10420. We could see a false break putting Bitcoin in a likely overbought condition. What may drive price higher is any potential to convert non taxed fiat cash into bitcoin. That will become increasingly difficult meaning that major market participants that aren’t really speculators become major sellers eventually. We still believe that the gap opening at 2800 in 2017 is the one to fill before this market has a change of becoming more mature. Bitcoin though is leading the way towards a near full digital economy. No change in remaining absent from this apparent overly manipulated market with just price following speculators and which still acts against the principle of managing portfolio risk in a mature asset class


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0828 (0.0853)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 80 (80) 34 (70)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


BEST has lost 3% last week with Daily and Weekly risk in downtrends. This investment position is based on the idea that a paradigm shift will take place in financial markets and regulated (crypto) digital exchanges stand to benefit. As more assets are being tokenised and ready to be traded on these crypto exchanges, volume will increase steadily, benefitting holders of Bitpanda’s Ecosystem Token (BEST).

22 May: This junior market is too young to provide a long term monthly risk weight but a virtual level would possibly indicate an uptrend at the 70 level. This allocation is nothing more than an educated shot at what the future might bring in digital asset trading on a regulated exchange where compliance drives the seriousness of investor participants. Also technically this market still looks positive, but shocks, up and down, may occur as we know. No Change

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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