Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | What will happen to stocks Oil and crypto? | 7 August 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3352 (3295)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
82 (81) 92 (93) 85 (89)
Allocation 0% (0%)


This is a time that several National Treasuries must be very much aware that they will cause havock amongst small investors. The psychology factor is pushing many small investors into stocks at massively increased risk levels. Many will lose their shirt. Throughout the 5 month advance, having generated new all time highs in S&P and NASDAQ, risk has remained high which is why a possible expensive opportunity is missed in favor of removing portfolio risk. Especially the long term bearish divergence comes into play in our three risk weight tools, Slow Stochastic, MACD and RSI. Given the massive increase in money supply flowing into very few hands it is impossible to predict how a solution comes about. But here’s one possible scenario: Deutsche Bank goes bust taking the system along with it and the president of the USA is personally bankrupt as a result. It can happen. Paper wealth just disappears like snow before the sun.
It looks like owning Precious metals, being Nature’s real money, is the only safehaven at this moment to protect at least a substantial portion of total wealth. No Change, No stocks.

3 August: Another strong performance of the S&P outside of our risk parameters topping at 3303 and closing Monday at 3295. Our forecast remains unchanged with increasing chance of a financial bloodbath arriving on our doorstep. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
44.87 (43.71)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
45 (44) 93 (95) 72 (66)
Allocation 0% (50%)


On 5 August, 2020 Oil made our predicted full recovery of the gap open on March 9, 2020 at 45.27. Prices of the most liquid markets almost always retrace gap openings. This one took a little longer. Brent briefly touched 46.23 before retracing below 45. As Weekly and Daily risk have now turned down and Monthly not looking positively safe in a fairly neutral risk range, we have decided to get out of our loss position this morning. Badly timed trade, decent recovery and minimising risk. Back to square and a bit of cash. No position in Oil. With a world economy at risk of continued slow down there is no fundamental reason beyond technical risk. We may be looking to increase our metals position again on a next decent signal.

3 August: Weekly overbought turning down, Monthly risk in uptrend, Daily risk turning up. A pause and Brent more likely not yet finished its current uptrend. Caution but no change for now as the gap needs to be filled and Medium term weekly likely to show bearish divergence before a turn given the extended length of the current uptrend.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
11970 (11270)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
65 (64) 85 (80) 85 (72)
Allocation 0% (0%)


A very strong performance, also fuelled by several influencers in the crypto space. Max keiser, Raoul Pal, Simon Dixon being amongst them. We think they are wrong this time if only because there is a gap to be filled at 2800. That gap existed in the Daily time frame before 24 hour trading with reasonable volume took over. So, in our view this is a real gap which lead to the extreme and highly speculative rally in 2017 and which made early adopters, including these influencers rather happy. We would strongly recommend checking out Simon Dixon’s YouTube channel. Very bright guy and very realistic about the chances of systemic failure and even BTC. The real reason why we think BTC, which is still the only crypto asset of any significance, is not ready to move is because the narrative is wrong. Influencers talk about the digital alternative to a collapsing monetary system, but at the same time ALWAYS mention the profit that can be made in US$. A profit in dollars as if the dollar will still have the upperhand when it comes to measuring wealth. That just does not make sense and thus pure wishful speculation. It does not mean BTC at $100,000 or even $1,000,000 cannot happen. Of course it can, but there is a flaw in that analysis if fiat currency would live on as it has since Bretton Woods. It would put too much power in too few hands and the Deep State won’t allow that to happen. Sure BTC could top $20k again or stop at $15k. This is a very high risk market still and should only be played with a percentage of wealth that one can afford to lose. No Change even though we love the crypto space as it adds a potential alternative layer of potential fiat currency and future trust. This will no doubt play a huge role for generations to come.

3 August: A strong performance in recent days has increased interest in this potential new asset class. The token still involves very high risk and we stay with the forecast that the gap at 2800 needs to be filled first. If even some of the biggest financial beneficiaries of early adoption say that this is a gamble, we should not change our risk awareness attitude to one of greed eyeing BTC at 100,000 or even 1,000,000.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0827 (0.0780)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
73 virtual (75) 27 (20) 51 (45)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


3 August:
When it comes to the gamble of where crypto is heading, logic says in the regulated monetary space. Whilst commissions paid with BEST tokens are nearly all burned and owners can pay 30% less commission plus earning a monthly incentive trading on the Bitpanda platform, BEST tokens are a very nice entry into the crypto space. It isn’t speculative as it guarantees a return in the form of discounted commissions and monthly trading volume depending incentives credited in BEST tokens. Owners of BEST could well be in for a very positive surprise. A small permanent hold in BEST looks to be a very low risk alternative to cash in the bank. Just open a Bitpanda account on line and go through simple but necessary AML compliance.

31 July: BEST is technically an arbitrage as commission can be paid in BEST and is charged at ,012 E versus the current price of 0,08. A 30% discount. As BEST tokens received as commission are burnt frequently it will increase the notional value of BEST every year. BEST owners paying commission with BEST tokens against trading crypto and precious metals via the Bitpanda exchange can also earn BEST tokens at no charge based on monhtly trading volume. The Bitpanda exchange, being fully regulated, is probably the better risk custodian for smaller investors in physical precious metals as fees are very reasonable. Precious metals bought are 100% backed by physical metal, be it Gold, Silver, Platinum or Palladium. This is a considered expert analysis. Smaller inverstors looking to protect some wealth by owning precious metals should definitely consider opening an account with BITPANDA.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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