Gold finds $1750 support on short term bullish divergence

17 December close: Last Wednesday's drop quickly reversed within one hour to finish the day on a slightly stronger close with bullish divergence in the Daily time interval. Gold then managed to rise well above $1800 and relatively stronger versus other major currencies as the dollar continued on a strong note. The entire financial space is balancing on a knife's edge and holding gold in a larger insurance portfolio of precious metals is critical. Our technical consensus is lead by medium and long term timeintervals that show an unfinished super cycle uptrend. We must first see a traditional technical pattern to satisfy a serious peak in the making. No change to our long term hold which is Euro based.

03 December close: November closed and the December opening is just pushing the long term risk weight trend into positive territory. Simple chart support now resides at around 1705 which is the resistance line between August 2020 and Jan 2021 which was negotiated a few times this year and now holding. This is important and positive even though the overall performance of Gold and other precious metals have been disappointing, especially for traders. Our long term hold remains unchanged as our allocation sits just below Super cycle support (€1100) inclusive of physical holding expenses which visualised by the uptrending support line meeting the start of the super cycle uptrend in 2004 and through the quarterly low closings of 2015 and 2018. Resistance is at $2300 (€2035) on a linear scale chart. In rapidly increasing (hyper)inflationary economic conditions this resistance will surely be broken as it always did in history.

Gold/USD Quarterly close risk chart

Gold/USD risk position relative to
Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and Daily risk weight data.

(Previous update in brackets)

Gold/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1798 (1782)
Au Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
Au % Risk
33 (32) 44 (47) 54 (10)
Total PM
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Au:12% Ag:14% Pt:14%

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD / US DOLLAR FORECAST & PREDICTIONS.

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