Gold is building strength in consolidation-2 | 20 November, 2020
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|72 (73)||26 (25)||18 (22)|
Total allocation 50% (50%)
Gold/USD live price
Gold building strength in consolidation-2
20 November:: The Gold USD correction that started from a 2075 peak in August may not be quite finished, but as commented last week Gold is building unconditional strength during this consolidation. How deep the corrections goes is a guess, hence our partial risk and opportunity distribution into Silver and Platinum. Once Gold resumes its primary uptrend the speed of the advance cannot be predicted and we strongly believe in the traditional safehaven qualities of precious metals and more so now than ever before with many more Trillions of printed dollars, euros, pounds, swiss francs, yen, yuan etc. Gold since the turn in Dec 2015 and the confirmation in October 2018 is a strong long term hold.
13 November:: One thing we’ve learned from history; markets always return to their sensible levels. Multi time frame technical analysis allows us to stay away from high risk situations even if major opportunities are missed as a result. So far so good. Gold tanked on Monday because Viagra producer Pfizer reported a 90% success rate from their 3rd stage Corona Vaccin trials. Daily risk on Gold dropped sharply last week from 77 to 22 with Weekly at 25 now developing bullish divergence versus Monthly, at 73, risk. We have consolidated around the 2011 peak now for 16 weeks. The mostly likely next major move is ‘up’ looking for technical bearish divergence to develop in both Medium and Long term time frames. This will take many months to materialize. In the meantime, the ECB this week confirmed their unchanged ‘whatever it takes’ multi trillion Euro policy, mirroring Fed policy. Full hold, no Change.
Gold/Euro live price
20 November:: The 10% Gold price correction from the August peak we have witnessed against most currencies is technically very shallow in light of the 2 year 70% advance since October 2018. This confirms gold building strenght against most major currencies during this pause in the primary uptrend. Strong long term hold because we are currently witnessing a bullish divergenc developing between Medium term Weekly and Long term Monthly. This technical pattern continues to dominate our forecast, besides the unusual, historically confirmed, fundamental reasons to hold precious metals in times of severe economic turmoil.
13 November:: Gold dropped against Euro roughly nby the same margin as agaist USD and showing the same bullish long term technical picture across RSI, MACD and Stochastic tools.
06 November:: At 1628 Gold/Euro is holding and consolidating very nicely with a similar linear chart parallel resistance at 1800 based on price pattern as Gold/USD whilst the first Fibo objective sits at 2097. Gold vs Euro is a hold.
Gold/British Pound live price
20 November:: In the same broader picture Gold should perform no different against Sterling. Gold is a strong long term hold against all currencies as the fiat currency monopoly cannot sustain an already worldwide economic pressure now being further influenced by Covid.
13 November:: GBP was relatively strong in the currency space last week. The picture otherwise hasn’t changed with Gold looking strong long term as Medium and Short term tools develop bullish divergence vs Long term. No Change.