Possible low risk opportunity to add to metals position next week | 25 June 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
GOLD FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Gold/USD | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1779 (1763) ↓ 6% |
||||||
| Au Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| Au % Risk Weight |
49 (48) | 62 (75) | 12 (10) | |||
| PM Distribution Portfolio allocation 50% (35%) |
Pt:35% | Ag:30% | Au:35% | |||
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
25 June close: Gold's sideways chart pattern as observed in hourly and daily charts points towards a possible fresh short term low next week. On the quarterly chart below, the upper parallel line of the 20 year price channel shows resistance around 2300. A push through that level indicates significant inflation. No change to our overall long term hold on all precious metals. Possibly looking to add to the position beyond a 50% allocation in the near term if a low risk opportunity arises from an extended correction as all Gold/USD risk weight trends are still down in this interim correction since August 2020. The Quarterly risk chart is trending up similar to the 2003-2009 period.
18 June close: All metals, even solid Palladium, were hit relatively hard against a very strong USDollar last week. Gold lost 6% and may see a bit more pressure before bottoming out. We are moving into a 'lockdown hold' on the existing positions possibly adding some Platinum from cash. There is no change to the long term outlook although a break of the March lows requires some strategic rethinking which more likely than not, based on today's technical position, will lead to an increase of the core position which still scores a 30%+ paper result.
The Gold/USD Quarterly interim 50 year risk chart below has a long way to go before it reaches a first trend changing signal. Hold, No Change.
Gold vs USDollar (interim) quarterly
