As Metals got hammered last week we look to add even more | 18 June 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|48 (55)||75 (91)||10 (55)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
18 June close: All metals, even solid Palladium, were hit relatively hard against a very strong USDollar last week. Gold lost 6% and may see a bit more pressure before bottoming out. We are moving into a 'lockdown hold' on the existing positions possibly adding some Platinum from cash. There is no change to the long term outlook although a break of the March lows requires some strategic rethinking which more likely than not, based on today's technical position, will lead to an increase of the core position which still scores a 30%+ paper result.
The Gold/USD Quarterly interim 50 year risk chart below has a long way to go before it reaches a first trend changing signal. Hold, No Change.
11 June close: For 3 weeks Gold has traded in a narrow range of just 60 dollars. And again as we approached the weekend, speculators were net sellers. Nothing thusfar, since the most recent advance that started in Q4 2018, is signalling an intermediate top of major proportion. Also in light of the highly volatile crypto currency and native token markets, gold feels as solid as ever and will remain at least 50% in what is still a very high risk multi asset amrket environment. Let's just say we've moved relatively early and losing some opportunity (mainly equity indices) in the process, whilst being well ahead of real inflation. We stay with a very full over weight precious metals holding until we hit the center of the storm. That storm will come, just don't know when. No Change.
04 June close: Metals again had a disappointing trading stint last week, but Gold at least managed to show a decent recovery from the early Friday low closing just 0.6% lower for the week. We observe both quarterly risk (chart below) and monthly risk again leading the gold uptrend. Of course attention is focussed on the major asset classes producing the best results which is still equities in terms of size and crypto in terms of media attention. Hourly Gold (check live chart) showed bullish divergence this week in all our tools creating fresh short term momentum. This technical picture gives confidence to our oprimary holding showing lower risk than any other asset class at the moment. No Change.