Gold/USD live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1468 (1458)
Gold/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
82 (81) | 43 (55) | 28 (20) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Gold reserves and asset re-allocation for insurance purpose.
Last week: The near 4% price drop, which was the every day trend during the past week, is entirely within expectation bounderies and accompanied by a sharp drop in ST risk weight. Technically the price could drop closer to 1400 without losing touch with the primary uptrend that started over a year ago. Because Hourly appears to keep pressure in the very short term, both ST Daily and Weekly are already at a point of divergence vis a vis the LT risk weight, which points towards this market finding strong support. It is the combination of a large LT price cushion and divergence that calls for staying fully invested and as we said last week, this is a good time to allocate a larger percentage of the assets at risk to Gold (and Silver). No change
Gold/EUR live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1328 (1324)
Gold/EUR | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
84 (85) | 38 (48) | 32 (32) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Gold/Euro as one expects shows a very similar technical picture, and also has a USD/Euro element affecting ST Gold Euro price variations. No Change due price cushion and rapidly developing bullish risk weight to price divergence.
Gold vs Euro is still showing longer term downtrend pressure and little price change, but the overall pattern is very much in favor of Gold. Chart behavior indicates Gold may have ended the correction that started early September. Euro denominated asset portfolio's should consider a higher allocation to Gold to increase protection and insurance against price erosion in other asset classes that show high risk-weight. No Change
Gold/GBP live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1137 (1140)
Gold/GBP | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
75 (75) | 12 (18) | 24 (25) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Sterling looks quite weak versus Gold at this level with bullish price divergence entering in the Daily time frame. Gold/Sterling still sits 25% above the late 2018 market low at 900 and poised to turn back up strongly again and relatively soon given the more deeply oversold risk weight in ST and MT time frames. No Change
Silver/USD live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 16.90 (16.76)
Silver/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
63 (63) | 35 (47) | 17 (18) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Silver as always takes a bigger hit when the market turns down. All that is happening is building massive energy to scream into the sky with rocket speed. We have seen as big drop since August which typically takes out weaker hands. With ST and MT getting into oversold risk weight levels and LT Monthly at a more neutral balanced level we feel comfortable staying fully invested
Silver/EUR live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 15.29 (15.23)
Silver/EUR | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
68 (68) | 35 (45) | 16 (22) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Silver against Euro shows an identical technical status as ag USD, so again No change
Silver/GBP live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 13.08 (13.11)
Silver/GBP | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
68 (60) | 35 (45) | 19 (22) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Sterling has shown more strength against silver and as a result Silver is more oversold in terms of risk weight. We expect Silver to move up quicker against GBP in coming weeks, i.e GBP weakening relatively more or strengthening less in general against most other financial instruments
Gold/Silver Ratio live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 86.33 (86.67)
GOLD/SILVER Ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↑) |
% Risk Weight |
45 (46) | 55 (46) | 81 (75) |
Allocation | 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG) |
Last week: The ratio is not causing any kind of concern at this elevated level. It will seek equilibrium again, as it always has in history, which is more likely to materialize well below the 60 Silver to one Gold level. No Change
FX: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD Index, GBP/EUR, Bitcoin
EUR/USD FX live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1.1046 (1.1015)
EUR/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
14 (12) | 55 (55) | 15 (10) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: The dollar strengthened across the board all of last week in line with a buoyant US stock market. It appears to take a few more mon ths to tango away from the October low and finally confirm the USD low established in Jan 2017. No change to remain fully risk averse and keeping long dollar exposure covered
USD/CHF FX live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 0.9892 (0.9965)
USD/CHF | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) |
% Risk Weight |
51 (54) | 64 (66) | 75 (75) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Dollar strength rather adds to risk awareness and this market eventually turning south again after holding a historically narrow range for 4 years. No Change
Cable GBP/USD FX live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1.2900 (1.2760)
GBP/USD (Cable) | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
42 (40) | 85 (84) | 50 (25) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: Bullish risk weight divergence emerging between Short Term Daily and Medium Term Weekly is a call for a weaker USD again versus Sterling, hence no Change in keeping Dollar receivables covered forward
USdollar Index Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 98.00 (98.40)
USD Index | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↑) |
% Risk Weight |
80 (82) | 28 (28) | 82 (90) |
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Last week: The one percent rally of the Dollar Index last week is NOT a change of trend. Quitre bthe opposite with ST risk weight rather overbought and showing bearish divergence versus MT. We can easily find many reasons for a temporary strong dollar, but the Greenback simply does not look strong at all technically. No Change.
GBP/EUR FX live price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 1.1663 (1.1588)
GBP/EUR | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
61 (60) | 92 (90) | 87 (60) |
Allocation | 50% (60%) |
Last week: Sterling is holding its own but looks potentially vulnerable in MT and LT time frames. So, we happily stay with a smaller forward cover of Sterling payables
BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 8491 (8773)
BITCOIN BTC/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | ↓ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
52 (52) | 34 (33) | 12 (18) |
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Last week: The Bitcoin price picture is developing for a more volatile MT term price range. Long term support is at 4350 with a mild LT up-slope. If that breaks, the 2018 low is support and likely to give way. If 4350 does not break we may find ourselves in a new era of financial reality and position ourselves accordingly with minimum risk. No change
Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.
Dow Jones Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 28005 (27681)
US30 (Dow Jones) | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
92 (91) | 94 (87) | 96 (93) |
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Last week: Dow is very high risk and is obviously again defying gravity. The economy is great, money is dirt cheap, so nothing can happen to us. From a risk weight perspective we cannot re-position anywhere close to even a minor long position. It is bad risk and equity investment only works for individual powerhouse stocks and great startups. Index wise it is a no go unless you wish to speculate very short term and accept the chance of being whipsawed, which is a more typical outcome for most traders at certain points, like now, in a sequence of trend seasons
S&P 500 Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 3120 (3093)
Standard & Poor 500 | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) |
% Risk Weight |
93 (92) | 98 (95) | 94 (92) |
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Last week: All time frames are overbought and diverging in their own time frame. This simply is a very high risk market technically and from past experience this unprecedented development can only be a matter of sovereign manipulation which we know is a fact. It just appears to go on and on for so much longer than many of us would have expected. Yet is does not change the inherent risk image. Else just the same as Dow Jones. Stay away
Brent Crude oil Weekly update risk analysis relative to Long Term Monthly(LT-M), Medium Term Weekly(MT-W), Short Term Daily(ST-D) and Hourly(not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Close 15 November: 63.45 (61.55)
Brent | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D |
---|---|---|---|
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) |
% Risk Weight |
29 (28) | 39 (35) | 77 (78) |
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Subject to mid week change. No change for now.
Last week: Price range was fairly narrow last week ending unchanged. The inverse flag formation since Late September can fall both ways. The long term can resume down if market turns weaker or a few dollar price increase can create bearish divergence of ST versus LT. The picture isn't clear and thus a low risk trade cannot be made at this stage