Daily risk weight trend turned up this week. Silver, being a semi, at least, manipulated commodity requires patience. The primary trend still looks firmly in place in spite of the relatively strong correction the past 6 weeks. No change.

Last week: Silver closed unchanged last week after a 1/2% range between top and bottom. Technically Silver/USD is leaning towards a similar picture as Gold/USD. Our full allocation cushion is 20% and the early September top is definitely NOT a new LT top. Experience learns that Silver has a lot more work to do to the upside if only that the Ratio (85) to Gold is so far away from equilibrium. We are confident to stay with the full allocation. No Change.

The Silver/Euro correction following a week of more strength for Euro vs USD is shallowing. Otherwise the same reasoning as for Silver/USD applies. Keep full allocation Silver. No change

Last week: Different timeframes show risk weight levels that can continue or turn anytime. There is no clear direction of risk other than that the ST Daily may push a little lower first to under 15.50. All timeframes are down, but the cushion is again sufficient to ride out this little depression. No Change.

Strength of Sterling against just about everything else financial has become speculative and we may expect a fairly strong correction fairly soon. From what level remains to be seen but risk against GBP is increasing. It means No Change in keeping full allocation Silver vs GBP.

Last week: Same analysis as Gold/GBP and Silver/Euro. Even though we currently experience downward risk weight in all timeframes we haven't yet see a serious technical top. It looks like we need to do a tyre exchange in a relatively dark tunnel, but we have the tyre and we take our time. Given the comfortable cushion and lack of serious investment alternatives in what can be considered 'real money' we stay with the full allocation.

Technically the risk weight down trend is still in play with a great opportunity to participate in the correction towards equilibrium. This may become a long term position with many ups and downs. No Change for now.

Last week: A function of being 50/50 allocated between Gold and Silver shows in remaining fully committed to the individual Gold and Silver pairs. The downtrend that started in July and was expected already for some time is in force and even though another attempt to crush Silver cannot be excluded it doesn't look like key players are willing to take that risk which has to do with the noticeable interest shown by Central banks around the globe in at least maintaining a strong allocation to Gold which already had a big positive effect on Silver in the alternative media where speculators tend to lean more towards Silver following the many well known precious metals analysts.

The Index turned down sharply from the beginning of last week and reached the lows we saw in August. Even though Daily risk weight is in oversold territory below 10%, the dollar looks weak across the board. MT and LT risk weight is leading and long dollar exposures must be kept fully covered.

Last week: The Dollar index is in as firm downtrend. The ST Daily may develop mild bullish divergence in the coming fortnight which can pause or temporarily reverse this trend. Only massive Central Bank intervention could stop what we see is a strong technical potential for dollar weakness. This has of course been our position for some time. Especially the LT-Monthly time frame looks very heavy indeed. To avoid logical misunderstanding, a full allocation in this analysis is meant as a fully hedged Long dollar exposure. No Change.

This image feels like Sterling has paused a longer term downtrend against the EURO within a 10% range. This is part of the risk that now also influences positioning and if GBP is to weaken again and to continue the trend that started in 2015,the UK Treasury will happily let this happen to eleviate a fundamentally weak financial status.
The resistance line between the highs of early 2017 and early 2018 maybe a bridge too far for GBP. It could penetrate at 1.1725 and even follow through to the 1.20 level but risk weight is telling the story of a possible ending of a 3 year correction ag Euro that started in October 2016. The ST and MT risk weight is already in overbought territory and we would feel happy to unwind 20% of the position on Monday, leaving an 80% short GBP cover. With ST-D and MT-W at these levels a further sprint and crossing of 1,1700 could be reason to unwind further but we need to see more evidence of that MT risk becoming overweight and turning down. The change is to unwind to 80% cover on short GBP exposure.

Last week: An unusual move where GBP first showed weakness and then finished the week by unwinding the previous 2 weeks erosion of 3.5% plus add another 1% on top. We follow the same position we took last week ands await further technical proof that the GBP long position needs to be re-addressed. No Change.

Since the June high at 14,000 the MT time frame can be expected to show bullish divergence before this market can be expected to restart an uptrend. Strong fundamentalists tend to also get influenced by market forces that they haven't foreseen and cannot explain. Nouriel Roubini is such person who seems to embrace the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a store of value. But at what level? Traditionally such change in opinion is more likely than not to confirm the original thesis. We are more aligned with his original view until this market becomes more transparent and probably at much lower levels including a much depreciated USDollar. No Change.

Last week: The ST Daily turned down from a mild bearish divergence vis a vis the Weekly risk weight level at 10%. This may cause price to drop. BTC was helped by the news that LIBRA is looking to delay or suspend a serious introduction. This markety need to mature before we can begin to seriously consider investment risk. Market soundings appear to indicate that there is Institutional interest but we have to be very suspicious how real this is. No change.

Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.

The Dow Jones index remains high risk and potentially carries a value that incorporates a massive future weakening of the USDollar. Major corporations in the financial industry have no choice but to continue to protect shareholder value with assistance from Central banks and further quantitative easing. It is a completely manipulated market and it may well be naive not to embrace and particpate in full. This index of 30 stocks may well remain very firm for another few years but it does not change the image of high risk-weight looking at a variety of commonly used technical tools. We watch Stochastic, MACD and RSI and all show more downside risk. The latter is the only reason to stay away from this asset class. No Change.

Last week: Clearly the INDU is the biggest opportunity loss, but unfortunately risk awareness does have to take over if markets show very overbought conditions. ST time frames keep pushing this market up and up. We are now at the level where we decided to firmly stay out which was in Sept/Oct 2018. During the past 12 months we have seen a massive drop confirming our risk position, followed by a hefty struggle to find direction between March and October this year. Every indicator in our book says to 'be very careful'. We still cannot participate in this asset class until the Index takes a more serious breather from its 9 year advance. No Change.

In essence the S&P 500 shows the exact same picture as INDU and most international stock market indices. Sheer financial power has kept this index in a stronger position than most indices whilst the S&P continues pushing for another new high. No Participation, No Change.

Last week: Bearish divergence in the Monthly timeframe which repeated itself again following another down and up year is the key reason for not investing in this index. The unprecedented and insatiable appetite for this market just doesn't sink in. Of course we understand that cheap money has driven these markets for the past 10 years, but where technical risk becomes a very serious issue, the opportunity of following traders who believe these are the right fundamentals sometimes can be relatively costly. If money earning capacity is equal to adopting massive position risk than so be it. The Risk-weight picture simply remains too high in this asset class. No Change, no position.

On Oct 16 we closed out as ST risk-weight trend turned down at the close of Oct 15. ST risk is relatively hard to predict as long as MT risk-weight remains in a downtrend, unless there is substantial bullish or bearish divergence between different time frames. Nominal risk levels do not offer clear direction so we must stand aside again. It could literally go either way in the next few weeks, hence no investment until a fresh opportunity presents itself.

Last week: Our 50% entry last was based on a ST low risk-weight picture after a very bouncy few weeks. That picture appears to become somewhat blurred because the MT and LT could turn either way even though the longer timeframes are at relatively low risk-weight levels. As long as we do not actually see a risk-weight uptrend in MT and LT it could continue downward. As a result we will put a stop loss on the position at any level where the daily turns down the coming week. There is a bit of a Gap at 63.00 on 25 Sept. This might be an objective to release the position for another quick 10% opportunity result.