Gold Platinum ratio develops interim bearish divergence | close 24 Dec 2020
Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
PLATINUM FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Platinum USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1026 (1038) | ||||||
| PT Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| Pt % Risk Weight |
76 (76) | 80 (82) | 60 (66) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 55% (50%) |
Pt:30% | Ag:40% | Au:30% | |||
Platinum / USD live price
Platinum comment
24 December close: Platinum has been struggling to close above the 1037 level as confirmed by a longer expected correction period of the Gold Platinum ratio below. Weekly risk weight gives mixed signal turning down into Christmas, butg Daily turned up in neutral risk territory whilst Monthly is still in a stronger uptrend. Relative strength index has miles to go to the upside. Pressure on Precious metals is partly influenced by the extreme verbal marketing of Bitcoin in alternative media whilst most other major crypto's have underperformed last week. The overall technical picture still looks firm for Platinum/USD going into 2021. No Change.
18 December close: Long term Platinum remains in a strong unfinished uptrend and still flirts with our critical 1037 level. Medium Weekly turned down whilst short term daily turned up again. Tecnically not a very clear picture right now, but the better risk strategy is to give long term direction the benefit of any doubt, also in light of a return to equilibrium with Gold. That long term Platinum trend is still up!
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| Gold Platinum ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 183 (181) | ||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
40 (38) | 16 (11) | 73 (70) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 55% (50%) |
Pt:30% | Ag:40% | Au:30% | |||
Gold / Platinum Ratio Charts
Daily Ratio 24/12/20
Daily risk of Gold/Platinum ratio rushed into the low 90's before turning down midweek. This created a bearish divergence between Daily and Weekly time scales. History tells us that there is a good chance for price to stay within a narrow range between 1.80 and 1.90 with a slight upside bias from the current 1.83 ratio level due to weekly risk being in a low risk uptrend. The divergence can then start to close into the new year 2021. This is all fairly short term which is inconclusive during a thin year-end trading market.
Weekly Ratio 24/12/20
Weekly risk weight added 5 points to close the shorter week at 16. Nornal technical behavior could sede it climb a bit more before turning back again under the weight of Daily risk coming off.
Monthly Ratio 24/12/20
Monthly risk weight shows a stronger downtrend with the interim risk weight 2 points higher on Dec 24. This time scale indicator is still leading and should drive the ratio down further within 1 to 3 months.
Qrtly Ratio as at 24/12/20
Interim Quarterly risk weight is also slightly higher emphasizing a stronger Gold Platinum ratio downtrend still in force. If Quarterly takes over from Monthly as a leading indicator we may need to wait at least 4 to 6 months before we see a real intermediate long term price bottom. For now there's no change in our long term outlook towards Gold/Platinum 1:1 again.
18 December comment:
Daily Ratio 18/12/20
At the Dec 18 close, the Gold to Platinum ratio continued its pause in the longer term downtrend at around 1.82 whilst Daily risk is shooting up (43 to 70) into a bearish divergence with Weekly and Monthly. That divergence building should materialize with renewed pressure in favor of Platinum in the next few weeks. No Change.
Weekly Ratio 18/12/20
Weekly risk marginally rosem whilst there is room to decline towards 0 again upon a strong bearish divergence with the Daily trend. A few daily Platinum USD closings above 1037 would increase the chance of a more rapid erosion of the Gold Platinum ratio level.
Monthly Ratio 18/12/20
Monthly risk is updated weekly and is therefore an interim risk level. Monthly risk is still in a strong downtrend with a short two weeks until Year-end. Even if Month-end shows this trend turning positive the nominal level can be expected to reach a much lower risk level with a corresponding much lower Gold Platinum ratio.
Qrtly Ratio as at 18/12/20
Interim Quarterly risk weight is still 53, like last week. This is a strong downtrend and as clearly visible on the long term 50 year historic Gold Platinum chart, risk seems to really move from deep low risk oversold to extreme high risk levels before reaching the end of the trend. We are far away from such observation, hence confidence in the outlook for a much lower Gold Platinum ratio sometime in 2021.