Gold vs Bitcoin is Apples vs Tangerines | 30 April 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|1768 (1776) (unch)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|48 (49)||45 (35)||70 (84)|
Portfolio allocation 30% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
30 April close: Friday Gold was weak again with only a mildly lower close. Our primary investment focus has been on Precious metals since early 2016 and on Bitpanda's Ecosystem token since 2019. The heavy promotion for crypto makes us wonder why that bully narrative approach would be necessary. Somehow it makes the Precious metals investment portfolio feel as secure as ever. Shorter term risk weight charts still show pressure but long term Monthly risk weight has been consistently down since the August 2020 peak. As we are in a primary and unfinished advance the medium and long term market outlook for gold would be for bearish divergence risk weight to develop against a much higher price level. No Change.
23 April close: The Bitcoin versus Gold debate between Michael Saylor (100% Bitcoin) and Frank Guistra (20% Gold) was interesting because of 2 interesting individuals with strong views bringing short term (Saylor) and long term (Guistra) knowledge into a highly volatile arena of narratives. The entire, well prepared, Stansberry debate was comparing apples and oranges of course but our clear winner is Guistra for one reason only: You simpy MUST NOT put all your eggs in a single basket. The full 2 hour debate can be seen on Youtube here > https://youtu.be/coHC_9ApBdg.
With that said, Gold performed fairly strong until it fell a fourth Friday in a row closing without much change. This gold asset looks fairly solid still with weekly in an uptrend and monthly just ready to turn back up into an unfinished bull market. Daily has not yet produced a sell signal even though risk weight is high but not at all critical at 84%. We exercise patience and no change.
30 April comment
April month end on the Quarterly Gold risk chart supports the long term view for developing bearish divergence. Risk weight therefore traditionally should be expected to maker a second lower high just like it did in December 1979, just prior to the January 1980 price peak.
Comment 23 April:There is typically very little change in the very long term quarterly risk chart if closing price is more or less the same. The picture tells we have many more quarters to see a positive development for Gold versus USDollar.
Gold/Euro live price
30 April 2021: A slightly stronger dollar towards the end of last week is pushing Gold vs Euro in a solid hold with patience technical position.
23 April 2021: The picture of Gold vs Euro feels a little heavier this week than Gold/USD which has to do with a weaker dollar across the board. This may pause the Gold advance versus Euro a bit longer perhaps, but foolish to remove Gold from the portfolio equation. Full Hold.
Gold/British Pound live price
30 April 2021: Gold vs GBP is showing the lowest risk weight percentage across time scales. No Change.
23 April 2021: GBP still looks the potentially weaker currency versus gold even though it has kept a fairly strong position in the overall currency space. Where Gold clearly is one of the heavily managed currencies that is now dancing round the floor, we believe it is just a matter of time before Gold spikes hard again versus GBP. Monthly is down still but doesn't feel like that's where it wants to go. It may still do temporarily, however Gold must be a stronger Hold than Bitcoin.