Gold technical outlook very positive as at Dec 4, 2020


Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.

GOLD FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)


Gold/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
1837 (1787)
Au Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
Au % Risk
Weight
63 (70) 18 (16) 50 (16
PM Distribution
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Au:30% Ag:40% Pt:30%

Gold/USD live price


Gold technical outlook very positive as at Dec 4, 2020

4 December:: As discussed last week Gold still looked very positive with bullish divergence between short/medium and Long term time frames. This is an unusual condition not seen very often and really opens the potential for a phenominal advance in coming months going well into Q1 2021. The Weekly medium term risk weight needs to turn positive first and it is theoretically possible that another attempt to manupulate Gold downward may take place. If that happens our risk weight is likely to show an even stronger bullish picture than last week. This is a matter of patience. We stay fully invested in Gold and have only added another 5% of total portfolio to Platinum exclusively which had one of the best weekly advances since 2008 and looks it will do catch up with gold. Precious metals are now 55% of total portfolio with a balanced slightly opportunistic distribution of 30% gold, 30% platinum and 40% silver.

27 November:: Gold against US Dollar and all other major currencies tanked last week by $100 making the full month decline $200 total. A disappointing move for many speculators in this space usually causing an exit in gold ETF (paper gold) investments. Looking at technicals this price adjustment actually is a relief as both daily and weekly risk weight are now diverging substantially from the long term Monthly risk weight and we are lloking for a bottom to either have been establikshed or will be set in the next day or so. The first major chart objective is the parallel line to the 20 year support line through the 2011 top, now at 2450. Price is still in the upper 30 percent of the trend that started in August 2018. With a further 10% allocation to physical Platinum our Gold allocation within the precious metals divide has dropped from 35 to 30%. The present sub $1800 level is one to accumulate gold again for underweight investors. Otherwise No change.



Gold/Euro live price

4 December:: The technical picture across our tools looks very similar to Gold/US$ and possibly a little stronger which could mean a pause in dollar currency weakness which dominated currency markets the past week. No change to remain fully invested in Gold for Euro based investors.

27 November:: Gold vs Euro will follow the Gold/USD pattern. There may be a little more to the downside and the technical picture otherwise shows the same bullish divergence between daily/weekly and Monthly time frames.Daily has already turned up but may need one more move down before the divergence really kicks in. The market therefore looks positive for Gold with an objective of €1800/oz. The present €1500 level is one to accumulate gold again for underweight investors.



Gold/British Pound live price

4 December:: As against US$ and Euro, Gold shows a similar pattern again and UK tax based investors should remain fully invested in Gold and with a similar precious metals distribution to balance risk and opportunity.

27 November:: Gold vs GBP shows the same pattern again with an extended move down in the short and medium term time frames. A healthy development from a trading perspective whilst long term wealth investors see no indicators asking for caution. Quite the opposite, the present level is one to accumulate gold again for underweight investors.




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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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