Gold/USD 6 consecutive weekly closings above 2011 | 28 August, 2020

Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly
(LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data

(Previous week in brackets)

1965 (1938)
Au Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
Au % Risk
94 (93) 71 (80) 42 (40)
Allocation >Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

Gold/USD live price

We have split our PM forecast blog into the three separate metal sections Gold, Silver and Platinum. The allocation shown is adjusted to reflect the ntrue allocation in the total portfolio to each of the major metals. The Silver and Platinum sections also show resp. the Gold/Silver and Gold/Platinum ratio analysis.

28 August:: Gold has now had 6 consecutive weekly closings above the 2011 highest weekly close which was 1882 on 29 August 2011. That means that the current higher level is an accepted reality. We yet need to see a first Medium risk weight attempt at bearish divergence. A (much) higher price combined with a lower risk weight level turning down. Until such time no change to holding our maximum allocation to gold and platinum.
PT needs a move above 1040 to trigger the expected rally to equilibrium or at least towards $1925. Patience will be rewarded.

21 August:: The past two weeks we introduced a stronger view on Platinum. That hasn’t changed.
The past week saw another rally in the metals which halted on Wednesday turning south again. So, what is the Gold/US$ risk play here. The position is long from very early in this advance hence very limited trading risk. Technically we can argue an Elloitt correction to the start of intermediary wave 5 around 1700 or a 38% Fibo correction of the entire advance which started at 1450 last March. 38% because a really fundamentally strong market should not c orrect much more than that. The point is that in strong markets in a longer term advance typically develops bearish divergence several times in the MT and LT timeframes before making a more serious correction. And this is why we should not play shorter term correction because a real risk of missing the best long trade ever could be devastating from a wealth preservation point of view. Hence accepting the correction at hand and be patient is the right longer term approach.
Platinuj again showed weakness in the ratio at the end of last week but just like wait for Silver it is a matter of time before Pt reaches par with Gold again and possibly well above. No Change.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD / US DOLLAR FORECAST & PREDICTIONS.