Gold/USD 7 consecutive weekly closings above 2011 | 4 September, 2020


Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly
(LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data

(Previous week in brackets)


Gold/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
1931 (1965)
Au Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
Au % Risk
Weight
90 (94) 69 (71) 35 (42)
Allocation Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (Total 100%)

Gold/USD live price


4 September:: The significance of 7 weeks trading in all time elevated price territory after the strong advance starting in June, is that any retracement, even down towards 1800, is an acceptable type of volatility. This market still looks very strong medium term. Now is the time not to be trading for profit but exercise strong patience for gold to become part of a major reset template against fiat currencies. Even though all time frames are down, including quarterly which needs to close above 2048 in order to not turn down, the most common technical outlook is for both the Weekly and Monthly risk weight to show bearish divergence several times before this market finds it emotional top. Another picture we see is a weakening dollar in the fiat space which may propel gold higher relative to the greenback. No Change.

28 August:: We have split our PM forecast blog into the three separate metal sections Gold, Silver and Platinum. The allocation shown is adjusted to reflect the ntrue allocation in the total portfolio to each of the major metals. The Silver and Platinum sections also show resp. the Gold/Silver and Gold/Platinum ratio analysis.
Gold has now had 6 consecutive weekly closings above the 2011 highest weekly close which was 1882 on 29 August 2011. That means that the current higher level is an accepted reality. We yet need to see a first Medium risk weight attempt at bearish divergence. A (much) higher price combined with a lower risk weight level turning down. Until such time no change to holding our maximum allocation to gold and platinum.
PT needs a move above 1040 to trigger the expected rally to equilibrium or at least towards $1925. Patience will be rewarded.

Gold/Euro live price

4 September:: Looking for minimum 1800 target or above.


Gold/British Pound live price

4 September:: Looking for minimum 1613 target or above.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD FORECAST 2021.