Gold/USD risk prediction | October and Q4 2021 | 08 Oct
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|28 (29)||46 (45)||55 (25)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
08 October: Gold in Q4 2021 completed its first week which was largly uneventful, with strenght during the week and another sharp drop on Friday again to close slightly lower for the week. Monthloy risk weight is still down but feels like it could turn up any moment ending the consolidation since August 2020. Monthly risk weight dropped from a high of 94% to under 30% whilst holding support around the secondary resistance level between Nov 2011 and Nov 2012.
Weekly risk just truned up last friday which is a real signal that general sentiment is moving towards bullish. Daily risk weight is flattening and more neutral at around 55%, yet still up whilst hourly is in the low risk zone. We would expect more upward pressure the coming week which in itself doesn't change our stock position.
01 October: We closed this week at the start of the new month and last quarter of 2021. Interestingly quarterly risk weight has turned up without much price change and after a sharpish drop based on a relatively mild price correction (2000-1700) which is a positive sign as this major uptrend since 2016 should deliver more upside risk weight and most proably a bearish divergence once we reach the forecast price peak in the quarters or years ahead. Monthly risk weight has already come down to a lower risk level and can turn upwards if medium and short term indicators grow positive. Both weekly and daily risk are showing a more bullish pattern and more importanly NOT a bearish pattern. As our allocation is an insurance, the current picture provides more comfort to extend our patience with the core position. We do expect October and Q4 to be more positive for Gold than the past few months No Change.