Gold USDollar risk position | prediction October and Q4 2021 | 01 Oct
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|29 (32)||45 (45)||25 (20)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
01 October: We closed this week at the start of the new month and last quarter of 2021. Interestingly quarterly risk weight has turned up without much price change and after a sharpish drop based on a relatively mild price correction (2000-1700) which is a positive sign as this major uptrend since 2016 should deliver more upside risk weight and most proably a bearish divergence once we reach the forecast price peak in the quarters or years ahead. Monthly risk weight has already come down to a lower risk level and can turn upwards if medium and short term indicators grow positive. Both weekly and daily risk are showing a more bullish pattern and more importanly NOT a bearish pattern. As our allocation is an insurance, the current picture provides more comfort to extend our patience with the core position. We do expect October and Q4 to be more positive for Gold than the past few months No Change.
24 September: Gold is still searching for the market to decide 'it's time to take precious metals seriously'. There clearly has been a shift into other major asset classes which produce a shorter term wealth enhancing performance. Right now all major asset classes show higher risk even though Equities again appear to benefit from recent short term weakness with Buy the Dip and FOMO activity potentially pushing equity prices (much) higher again much ahainsy the long term risk picture. Gold was a non event asset last week with Daily and Monthly risk remaining at the same level and weekly just dropping a few percentage points. This means we may see further pressure in the coming days. The preferred chart analysis is that we finished the entire correction since the August 2020 record peak on 9 August 2021. In other words we should not see a price correction below 1681. Quarterly risk still requires the expected major top bearish divergence formation. No Change.