Gold/USD Price forecast | 11 September, 2020

Gold/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
1940 (1931)
Au Trend	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)	↑ (↓)
Au % Risk Weight	90 (90)	68 (69)	43 (35)
PM Allocation Limit(50%)	Invested	Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (100%)

11 September:: We see a bit of a technically driven fight based on hourly and daily market behavior for either a continuation of the short term correction well below 1900 or an immediate further advance to new highs within just 3 or 4 weeks. We first look for the Weekly risk weight to show a lower than 94 risk level together with a higher price (>2075) before we can begin to call an intermediate top. This is a the most common picture if markets are in a primary advance. Hourly is low risk and should at least keep the price up at the beginning of the coming week. Weekly downward trend is quickly losing momentum which is a positive sign for the coming week. Our precious metals distribution remains unchanged with a view to allocate more to Silver and or Platinum if their next horizontal resistance levels break. With 8 weeks closing above the 2011 weekly high close, Gold is basically in uncharted territory again once it travels above 2075 with a simple parallel upsloping upper resistance channel now at $2438. We can expect to reach that level together with a Monthly risk to price bearish divergence. No Change.

4 September:: The significance of 7 weeks trading in all time elevated price territory after the strong advance starting in June, is that any retracement, even down towards 1800, is an acceptable type of volatility. This market still looks very strong medium term. Now is the time not to be trading for profit but exercise strong patience for gold to become part of a major reset template against fiat currencies. Even though all time frames are down, including quarterly which needs to close above 2048 in order to not turn down, the most common technical outlook is for both the Weekly and Monthly risk weight to show bearish divergence several times before this market finds it emotional top. Another picture we see is a weakening dollar in the fiat space which may propel gold higher relative to the greenback. No Change.