Gold/USD Price forecast | 25 September, 2020 | Corrections are the toughest to deal with

Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly
(LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data

(Previous week in brackets)

1861 (1948)
Au Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
Au % Risk
87 (90) 58 (66) 13 (54)
PM Allocation Limit(50%) Invested Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (100%)

Gold/USD live price

25 September:: Corections are tough to deal with sometimes if that correction erodes a paper profit. Gold/USD fell 80 dollars last week still ending in the upper 2011 price high range. The highest weekly close in 2011 was 1882 on Aug 29 and this critical asset class for welath protection just held above that level for 9 straight weeks before a more serious reaction followed. We have been expecting such an event due to lack of momentum as well as a positive correction of the US$ currency. Gold reached its intermediate low around 1050 in Dec 2015, rallied towards 1370 and then bottomed again in December 2016 at 1125. Rallied gain twowards 1370 in 2018 and bottomed in August 2018 at 1160. These are all $200 advances and corrections or 16% every six months or so. So far, after a near 100% rally from that 2015 low we have seen a 10% correction. A similar 16% correction targets $1750. That level would be the top of the price range developing between March en July this year. Entirely possible. By FAR the biggest risk right now is for mainstreet to lose trust in our financial system. Even public outrage may develop rapidly as the highest level beneficiaries of this Multi Level Fiat Money Marketing scheme or Ponzi scheme at the the expense of most taxpayers is getting out of control, which it will.
Technically we first need to see bearish divergence in Medium term weekly and or Monthly indicators. That probability, before a more serious correcton, if at all, occurs, is closer to 100% than 80% and this is now the main reason for being VERY patient. No Change.

18 September:: In Elliott Wave terms the alternating observation leans towards a simple wave 4 correction wich is either underway since July or will develop at a much higher price level. The first technical objective is a simple new price high coupled with a lower risk weight than at the July high. No Change.

Gold/Euro live price

25 September:: Gold vs Euro fell around 10% from recent highs, and still 60% above the 2018 low. Arguably Gold vs EURO has shown mild bearish divergence justifying a technical correction., whilst the linear scale objective is 1800. A close well above that would open for a log scale rally of 3 times the 75% rally since October 2018 or a theoretical ‘intermediary’ target of around Gold/EUR 4000. No Change for Gold longs vs Euro like ourselves. Same for CHF.

18 September:: Shorter term this cross looks vulnerable to a correction which could be gold or dollar move. Even with a Long term monthly risk weight looking to turn down at a higher risk level we still Look for a minimum 1800 target or above.

Gold/British Pound live price

15 September:: As the USD increases in value Gold we do a little better against other major currencies. Gold ‘only’ dropped 8.5% vs GBP thusfar. Initial objective just above 1600. A significant break above 1625 means log scale = inflationary development.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD / US DOLLAR FORECAST & PREDICTIONS.

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