Gold/USD Price forecast | 25 September, 2020 | Corrections are the toughest to deal with
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|87 (90)||58 (66)||13 (54)|
|PM Allocation Limit(50%)||Invested||Pt:20% Ag:45% Au:35% (100%)|
Gold/USD live price
Technically we first need to see bearish divergence in Medium term weekly and or Monthly indicators. That probability, before a more serious correcton, if at all, occurs, is closer to 100% than 80% and this is now the main reason for being VERY patient. No Change.
18 September:: In Elliott Wave terms the alternating observation leans towards a simple wave 4 correction wich is either underway since July or will develop at a much higher price level. The first technical objective is a simple new price high coupled with a lower risk weight than at the July high. No Change.
Gold/Euro live price
25 September:: Gold vs Euro fell around 10% from recent highs, and still 60% above the 2018 low. Arguably Gold vs EURO has shown mild bearish divergence justifying a technical correction., whilst the linear scale objective is 1800. A close well above that would open for a log scale rally of 3 times the 75% rally since October 2018 or a theoretical ‘intermediary’ target of around Gold/EUR 4000. No Change for Gold longs vs Euro like ourselves. Same for CHF.
18 September:: Shorter term this cross looks vulnerable to a correction which could be gold or dollar move. Even with a Long term monthly risk weight looking to turn down at a higher risk level we still Look for a minimum 1800 target or above.
Gold/British Pound live price
15 September:: As the USD increases in value Gold we do a little better against other major currencies. Gold ‘only’ dropped 8.5% vs GBP thusfar. Initial objective just above 1600. A significant break above 1625 means log scale = inflationary development.