Gold USdollar risk position on quatorze juillet | 14 July
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|45 (42)||44 (48)||85 (17)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
14 July close: Weekly risk weight of the primary uptrend continuation that started in March 2021 has yet to produce bearish divergence. Until that happens and even when that happens we only start looking at a possible lightening of the position. Daily would be the first to signal a short term correction from what could develop as a fairly strong intermediate advance. Monthly is in a narrowing downtrend and should also produce a double or triple overbought condition before the primary trend finishes. The objective would be the top of the 20 year channel now offering initial resistance at just below 2600. No Change.
02 July close: Wednesday started the new month and quarter and at last week's close it is worth analysing where our precious metal markets are developing the most risk. Switching between Hourly (etc) Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts on the left (or above) and the Quarterly interim chart below. Very short term (hourly and 4 hourly) are looking toppish, i.e a minor correction whilst diverging versus Daily could be on the card for Monday July 5. Short term RSI is not confirming bearish divergence where Stochastic does on the 4 hourly chart. Momentum on Daily is clearly pointing up whereas weekly has only made a single peak. With Monthly leaning towards an upturn it looks like Gold will at least see several weeks of relative strength. The quarterly chart does not offer any analysis support other than that the very long term picture is most likely to develop serious bearish divergence before this primary uptrend comes to a halt. That is a long time away. Q3 could turn out to be be a fairly neutral quarter on balance with a decent tradeable price range. No change to our 'hodl'.