Gold USDollar risk position | close 17 Sep
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|32 (34)||50 (53)||20 (30)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
17 September: Last week's further correction in metals clearly makes for some scratching behing the ears in many gold corners. As discussed last week our metals distribution was adjusted on Monday position in favor of Platinum taking gold and silver down to 30% each and Platinum up to 40% of total metals. The technical picture still is NOT bullish, meaning the correction may take longer than originally anticipated. We do patiently hold on to metals as ultimate insurance and looking to find more opportunity in Crypto and very possibly major EV related development projects from a 15% cash position.
The technical picture is somewhat mixed but does not show a high risk decline. Weekly risk has virtually made bullish divergence in early August, closely nearing the price low of March 2021 just below 1680. Daily is is in lower quartile %%, but still down, where monthlky risk just continous the down trend that started in August 2020. With price still wel above the 2018 low (1200) we consider our precious metals and gold position as critical insurance since trust in financial and poltical systems are under great pressure worldwide.
The quarterly risk chart below has made a more traditional and expected bearish divergence case that typically matches with a major top in a high liquidity asset class like Gold.
10 September: We noticed last week that metals could develop another shakeout and even though it wasn't quite a shakeout all metals and in particular Platinum dropped in value. The world financial space is going through a paradigm shift from traditional business logic to massive innovative and digitally driven data and financial management. Many area's of traditional industry will become obsolete as a result whilst others will thrive. We will stay with our precious metals position in order to have the necessary insurance as the battle between liberal financial innovation and traditional government control is likely to produce an even more volatile higher risk environment.
There will be a shift in our balanced precious metals portfolio allocation as last week's Platinum move now presents a relatively low risk opportunity to go overweight Platinum. As a result we will shift about 4-5% of our physical Gold and 4-5% of our physical Silver into physical Platinum. This will likely happen already on Monday 13 September.