Gold USDollar risk position | close 24 Sep
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au % Risk
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
24 September: Gold is still searching for the market to decide 'it's time to take precious metals seriously'. There clearly has been a shift into other major asset classes which produce a shorter term wealth enhancing performance. Right now all major asset classes show higher risk even though Equities again appear to benefit from recent short term weakness with Buy the Dip and FOMO activity potentially pushing equity prices (much) higher again much ahainsy the long term risk picture. Gold was a non event asset last week with Daily and Monthly risk remaining at the same level and weekly just dropping a few percentage points. This means we may see further pressure in the coming days. The preferred chart analysis is that we finished the entire correction since the August 2020 record peak on 9 August 2021. In other words we should not see a price correction below 1681. Quarterly risk still requires the expected major top bearish divergence formation. No Change.
17 September: Last week's further correction in metals clearly makes for some scratching behing the ears in many gold corners. As discussed last week our metals distribution was adjusted on Monday position in favor of Platinum taking gold and silver down to 30% each and Platinum up to 40% of total metals. The technical picture still is NOT bullish, meaning the correction may take longer than originally anticipated. We do patiently hold on to metals as ultimate insurance and looking to find more opportunity in Crypto and very possibly major EV related development projects from a 15% cash position.
The technical picture is somewhat mixed but does not show a high risk decline. Weekly risk has virtually made bullish divergence in early August, closely nearing the price low of March 2021 just below 1680. Daily is is in lower quartile %%, but still down, where monthlky risk just continous the down trend that started in August 2020. With price still wel above the 2018 low (1200) we consider our precious metals and gold position as critical insurance since trust in financial and poltical systems are under great pressure worldwide.
The quarterly risk chart below has made a more traditional and expected bearish divergence case that typically matches with a major top in a high liquidity asset class like Gold.