Gold USDollar risk position | close 27 August
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|36 (32)||40 (30)||88 (35)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
27 August close: Little change or excitement in metals last week , hence no update.
Last Friday Gold appeared to have another attempt north closing the week at an August high.
With weekly turning higher across indicators with minor bullish divergence, the current trend is likely to be the start of a fresh uptrend. At these levels we really like Gold, Silver and Platinum as serious safehaven assets. Monthly gold risk has continued to drop into the broader 30+% handles during the 1 year correction. A strong close for the month, even with a lower and downtrending risk reading is likely to drop long term risk into a potential for turning very positive for Q4 2021. Long term Hold.
13 August close:The widely published flash crash from the previous weekend causing the market to drop $100 and involving a possible several billion dollar set of transactions was not market manipulation. Manipulators would be more organized and not sell into a totally illiquid market. More likely that it was fed into the market for several days and then given a push at Far east open in order to trade the other side. It may have been a well prepared switch from paper to physical even or a mere market test by a long term hold over several days allowing a small loss. A margin call is possible but unlikely given the time of the price drop. It is conceivable that the price will make another attempt south, but more likely to confirm the technical bullish case. The almost immediate 50 dollar recovery shows bullish divergence in both daily and weekly time scales on all our preferred market tools. No Change to our long term physical allocation.