Gold USdollar risk position | close 30 July
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|45 (44)||39 (43)||52 (88)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
30 July close: End of the month and Gold had mixed performance during the last two weeks of this holiday period. Down from 1835 to 1790 and settling just above 1800. Everything still points towards a long term build up to break the 2020 high. The technical picture is not being violated at all by the suspicion of large gold trader interventions. We hold our full position until a common primary uptrend bearish divergence becomes visible which we expect to witness in the Monthly time scale. This could take many months or several years even. The interim quarterly chart hasn't changed at July's close and is in an uptrend since the 1690 quarterly low in March 2021.
16 July close: Gold's weaker close, after the decent rally during the first half of this week just confirms the scenario below. Metals appear to be negatively influenced by relative weakness of other asset classes. There is no fundamental nor technical reason to change our medium and long term bullish outlook.