Gold USdollar risk position | close 6 August
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|32 (45)||30 (39)||35 (52)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
06 August close: Our long term hold is established at a bull market primary intervention level, i.e nearer the 2015 low in Euro. Present market weakness of all precious metals does not give any technical desired indication of a long term peak having been reached. All risk weight time frames do look weakish still but if we look at the long term price chart (Quaterly) Gold risk chart below), gold is just consolidating at a much higher level. A drop to 1700 or 1650 would not deter from patiently waiting for that much higher price print to develop and stick with it. Fundamentally, central banks are trapped and this is causing most traditional financial invesment assets to maintain their 'risk on' status. This has been going on for much longer than most expected, but we are happy to stay with the long term position and possibly adding to that metals position if our techical tools indicate a short and medium term hard oversold. That isn't the case yet, so no change.
b>30 July close: End of the month and Gold had mixed performance during the last two weeks of this holiday period. Down from 1835 to 1790 and settling just above 1800. Everything still points towards a long term build up to break the 2020 high. The technical picture is not being violated at all by the suspicion of large gold trader interventions. We hold our full position until a common primary uptrend bearish divergence becomes visible which we expect to witness in the Monthly time scale. This could take many months or several years even. The interim quarterly chart hasn't changed at July's close and is in an uptrend since the 1690 quarterly low in March 2021.