Gold USdollar risk position for Q3 2021 | 02 July
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|42 (49)||48 (62)||17 (12)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
02 July close: Wednesday started the new month and quarter and at last week's close it is worth analysing where our precious metal markets are developing the most risk. Switching between Hourly (etc) Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts on the left (or above) and the Quarterly interim chart below. Very short term (hourly and 4 hourly) are looking toppish, i.e a minor correction whilst diverging versus Daily could be on the card for Monday July 5. Short term RSI is not confirming bearish divergence where Stochastic does on the 4 hourly chart. Momentum on Daily is clearly pointing up whereas weekly has only made a single peak. With Monthly leaning towards an upturn it looks like Gold will at least see several weeks of relative strength. The quarterly chart does not offer any analysis support other than that the very long term picture is most likely to develop serious bearish divergence before this primary uptrend comes to a halt. That is a long time away. Q3 could turn out to be be a fairly neutral quarter on balance with a decent tradeable price range. No change to our 'hodl'.
25 June close: Gold's sideways chart pattern as observed in hourly and daily charts points towards a possible fresh short term low next week. On the quarterly chart below, the upper parallel line of the 20 year price channel shows resistance around 2300. A push through that level indicates significant inflation. No change to our overall long term hold on all precious metals. Possibly looking to add to the position beyond a 50% allocation in the near term if a low risk opportunity arises from an extended correction as all Gold/USD risk weight trends are still down in this interim correction since August 2020. The Quarterly risk chart is trending up similar to the 2003-2009 period.