Gold/USD risk prediction | 15 October 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|28 (28)||50 (46)||78 (55)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
15 October: The latest week saw another sharp and sudden drop on the Friday, but Gold is still holding its own. The technical picture looks ever safer for gold as being the best or better non speculative wealth preserving alternative to holding cash in the bank. Gold isn't oversold or anything either in the short or longer term time intervals, but it feels safe. Only short term time scales may look a little toppish after every rally and then correct again. The loudest narrative is that gold is dead in favour of the 'new gold' crypto scene. That is why we do not change to our long term hold at 12% of total portfolio. Patience will be rewarded either by being reasonably protected against financial market turmoil or excess real return on investment.
08 October: Gold in Q4 2021 completed its first week which was largly uneventful, with strenght during the week and another sharp drop on Friday again to close slightly lower for the week. Monthloy risk weight is still down but feels like it could turn up any moment ending the consolidation since August 2020. Monthly risk weight dropped from a high of 94% to under 30% whilst holding support around the secondary resistance level between Nov 2011 and Nov 2012.
Weekly risk just truned up last friday which is a real signal that general sentiment is moving towards bullish. Daily risk weight is flattening and more neutral at around 55%, yet still up whilst hourly is in the low risk zone. We would expect more upward pressure the coming week which in itself doesn't change our stock position.