If Gold isn't the primary choice to apply the 80/20 rule to preserve wealth we must have missed a few hundred years of history | 04 June 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|1890 (1902) (unch)
|Au Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|55 (51)||93 (90)||70 (88)|
Portfolio allocation 50% (35%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
04 June close: Metals again had a disappointing trading stint last week, but Gold at least managed to show a decent recovery from the early Friday low closing just 0.6% lower for the week. We observe both quarterly risk (chart below) and monthly risk again leading the gold uptrend. Of course attention is focussed on the major asset classes producing the best results which is still equities in terms of size and crypto in terms of media attention. Hourly Gold (check live chart) showed bullish divergence this week in all our tools creating fresh short term momentum. This technical picture gives confidence to our oprimary holding showing lower risk than any other asset class at the moment. No Change.
28 May close: The Inflation narrative is getting stronger from many influencer corners. Gold historically gets most of the attention in this scenario and has held up better than Silver and Platinum.
The long term channel uptrend appears solid with just limited price range risk with most likely breakout towards current channel resistance at $2500.
Daily risk turned up and down again and rests at same 88% level with weekly strongly up and monthly risk now determined to follow that uptrend. What we'd be looking for in this technical scenario is for weekly to develop bearish divergence over a period of 4 to 6 weeks coupled with a fairly sizaeable price advance. As we have not really yet seen that bearish risk weight to price divergence, which should also become a feature of the long term risk weight (monthly) trend, gold most likely will continue to develop a strong positive price trend in coming months with the odd (stronger) interim correction as a result of central banks loosening inflation control and keeping rates low. No Change.