Is Bitcoin leading the way? | 5 Febr
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
Price print Saturday 6 Feb 21:00 CET
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓ )||↑ (↑)|
|91 (92)||76 (75)||86 (48)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
6 Febr 2021: Bitcoin started last week at 32,300 and continued a steady advance for a high print of 40,989 before closing the week on Saturday at 39,234. A 21.5% week is nothing short of spectecular again. The potential to generate the same spectecular returns as in previous years is probably diminishing as more and more large institutional size investors have begun to participate. Other very interesting coins and tokens are surfacing with much potential. For some including government authorities, Bitcoin, which is a slow and expensive crypto currency, is a real challenge. For most people it is an unknown heavenly asset offering perpetual returns. We are not in favor of the risk associated with crypto currencies given the volatility. This does not match well as a major play with a wealth preservation risk profile. However we do believe that precious metals will start to rebalance both trust and value of any other world asset class including Bitcoin. Hence eyeing a good chance for gold to fill at least a few of the recent short term runaway opening gaps versus Bitcoin. The 'why' is because Central Banks will stick to Gold and they will find a more logical alternative to absorb the massive money creation during the past several decades. The biggest unknown is what will be the financial architecture to protect the banking establishment. Crypto, as a general term for everything Smart contract, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blokchain transferability, Decentralized Finance etc, is an incredible quantum leap that is yet to be fully appreciated and understood by older generations like ourselves. That potential clash can hopefully find a peaceful resolve. We will still not attempt to participate in crypto currencies, other than a very small non leveraged speculative interest. Not suitable for high risk wealth preservation investments, hence no Change.
31 January 2021: BTC looks technically very vulnerable, which is a primary reason not to invest. Given that Platinum still looks strong versus Gold with at least 50% price difference still to make up, and where gold hasn't begun to fill the first of 5 gaps against Bitcoin, short BTC long Platinum would be a logical choice for active traders who are still long Bitcoin at whatever level except the deepest cushions from last year's low ranges.
Circumstances are unusual in many asset classes and not easily understood either from a fundamental economic perspective. We would argue that Bridgewater's published interest in crypto is no reason to invest this minute as they are watching the same stats we do and must feel cautious on timing. And the best timing is during shakeouts of such highly volatile asset classes. We favor BEST and a few other crypto tokens as small punts. This Bitcoin market however remains highly interesting and sharply on the radar.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|91 (87)||81 (74)||94 (83)|
|Allocation Limit(20%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
Bitpanda BEST analysis
6 February 2021: Our Bitpanda Ecosystem token BEST has been a strong performing asset in 2021. A one hundred percent rally to match Bitcoin in the first week of January and an even larger than BTC percent correction that bottomed on Jan 11. Since then BEST has seen steady progress of more than 50% into this weekend with a new all time high of €0.3900 recorded on Saturday Febr 6. A number of popular high market cap tokens have outperformed the broader crypto indices. Binance has been extremely strong the past few days, Maker, Polkadot and a few others have shown spectecular moves. Some of these larger tokens are on our watchlist. We have chosen BEST in 2019 as an entry into crypto it represents a rapidly well managed and growing regulated exchange with substantial rewards for BEST owners. A few smaller trades per month reap a 10% per annum reward payable in BEST tokens. This asset also fluctuates more than most traditional assets but as the Bitpanda exchange spreads its wings througout Europe with new listings and additional BEST benefits, the downside risk is considered manageable and within our risk parameters. Bitpanda's PANTOS project could also make a penetrating leap once introduced, allowing arbitrage of highly liquid assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin between different exchanges using the PAN token as intermediary value to execute such arbitrage.
31 January 2021:
The above BEST performance for January was printed on 31 Jan midday. The January performance of BEST seems to come close to 85%, making it one of the better performing crypto tokens in the crypto exchange and DeFi space. BEST of course offers one of the better reward structures which can only be enhanced through future expansion of carefully listed tokens on the Bitpanda Exchange. Another major benefit of this exchange is the possiblilty to trade 100% physical backed precious metals on competitive terms and which gives Bitpanda an edge for account holders to keep funds on the platform paying significantly lower trading and storage fees.
One week ago Bitpanda announced the launch of a Bitpanda VISA managed Debit/Credit card allowing wireless and other digital expenses of up to €10,000 per day. These expenses can be offset against any wallet with enough funds including fiat currency. This is not far from a 'no brainer' and should drive more investment interest in the BEST token as BEST holders will benefit from additional discounts using the card for day to day consumer and larger purchases.
Technical analysis remains uncertain due to the limited available data since the August 2019 start. We yet need to see a major top in Medium term and Long term timescales. Our cushion since entry is substantial to allow this market to mature and discover the results from Bitpanda's rapid growth in human resource and the many development programs undertaken. Due to the nominal advance of BEST since October we have raised the portfolio allocation to 20%, pushing BEST to an equal footing with Silver.
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|96 (93)||90 (89)||90 (48)|
|Allocation Limit 20% (30%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
5 February 2021 close: The money machine revolution continues to do the intended job driving equity markets into new high ground again. As soon a shorter term risk weight drops below neutral levels and diverges against high risk long term risk weight it is simply BTFD again. Daily risk also rose into high risk bearish divergence level not allowing any higher risk participation. Many market influencers are seen to not understand this market behavior either but at the same time lean towards capitulation as if there is only one way left to choose; perpetual high double digit returns being long. Equities as generally represented in S&P 500 remain very high risk for any wealth preservation portfolio.
29 January 2021 close: Standard and Poor's 500 index peaked with a new all time high on Tuesday but lost over 5% from that peak closing near the lows. With Monthly risk weight narrowing to 93 from 95 but still going up this is a signal for potential weakness. No Change
Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|67 (66)||92 (78)||94 (48)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
b>5 February 2021 close: Brent crude oil enjoyed one of the stronger weeks in recent months with a >8% advance on Friday's close. Weekly risk weight is developing a potential second bearish divergence. This alone makes this a no go investment even though Monthly risk weight is in a stronger but shallowing uptrend. As so many markets continue to advance against definitive technical evidence and with so many wholesale and retail investors moving free assets into the crypto space this may be a strong indication for serious inflation on the horizon. This is why physical precious metals stored in a secure location with strong custodianship are our primary assets to preserve wealth. The question is how long the Status Quo of near indefinite money creation can be sustained. No Change.
b>31 January 2021 close: Brent Crude Oil market pricing still gives no strong signals in either direction in spite of Long term Monthly being in an uptrend. Weekly now offers a contra market downforce. With daily neutral and hourly getting oversold, this looks like a short term trading market only. We stay on the sidelines. No Change.