Bitcoin gets serious competition in 2021 | 20 March
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|85 (85)||85 (84)||73 (95)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
20 March 2021 close: Bitcoin hasn't had a down month since September 2020; that's a 6 months historically long period if BTC indeed closes above 45,100 this month. Anything can happen if markets show strong signs of overbought condition. A down month is a period where the close is lower than the open. We are in a dot io bubble which probably has some way to go if retail and institutional investors apply more of a diversification strategy into non-scam well researched company tokens and altcoins. There are definitely scams out there as investors appear to just about enter any new offer without blinking twice. To concentrate on Bitcoin, as the only safe haven, which now represents about 60% of the total crypto market ca is also a potentially unhealthy situation and can prove counter productive if that market suddenly tanks and then hurts most later entries in this asset class. Having said that, BTC Daily and Weekly risk swapped places showing a potential bearish divergence in Weekly time scale if that tool turns down again. The chance of driving BTC up another 100% is possible but diminishing whilst many other tokens also offer a good or better chance to participate profitably in the parabolic rise in blockchain based market solutions for Decentralized Finance using different platforms. For now the $60,000 handle appears to be building a ceiling.
13 March 2021 close: Bitcoin is the darling of the crypto space adding another 25% as if this is business as usual. Various other crypto tokens also managed >50% advances of which Chiliz is a clear winner at 450%. These moves are nothing short of amazing and there is no fundamental justification for this type of volatility other than there being a simple reason; massive speculation by the masses fuelled by influencer whales. We can see the incredible benefits that many Fintech companies can deliver to the 'new economy' which include huge investments into promising startups that generate employment for ever more IT engineers. Wealth preservation can only be delivered with manageable risk. This madness of crowds is known to end badly. Short term trading can be extremely beneficial but dollar signs are also know to hurt many, especially smaller investors. Interesting though that both Medium and Long term Bitcoin/USD risk weight are still high risk but down from the previous week even after this 25% advance. Highly unusual too, and suspect. As certain crypto assets become limitless and leveraged investment is possible up to 50:1 through different brokers etc, anything can happen. Without proper regulation it will result in financial failure for some or many. Many recent BTC investors however will be able to beat the next broad inflation cycle which could prevent the world economy from a disaster scenario unfolding. We shall continue follow this with great interest, whilst limiting our participation to BEST and smaller participation in (altcoins) tokens with business potential.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|87 (85)||84 (79)||85 (90)|
|Allocation Limit(30%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
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Bitpanda BEST analysis
20 March 2021: Bitpanda's BEST token showed another very strong week ending up 18% against the broader trend which ended the week flat. BEST' rise was triggered by a major announcement early in the week that Bitpanda has secured a $170 million funding facility via Valar Ventures, the same company, backed by Peter Thiel and others, that provided a Class A facility of $52 million last year. Valar of course is also an investor in Robin Hood and this major funding round announcement comes just after Bitpanda's announcement to introduce commission free fractional stock trading in April 2021. We can be confident that Bitpanda rolls out a strong campaign for growth driven by a unique combination of asset classes on offer through a single exchange. This will be a world 1st for a major regulated exchange platform to offer a rapidly increasing choice of crypto, fiat, precious metal and stock wallets. In spite of Medium and Longer term technical high risk conditions, the BEST token is still young and developing. We'd like to see BEST mature further and volume increase before considering trading with our core holding. BEST is one of the best performing crypto assets in the industry. It helps that a relatively small amount (€10,000) of broker trading through the Bitpanda exchange generates a flat 0.9% of BEST token trading rewards each month. €50,000 trading volume would carry the reward up to 1% per month. The minimum loyalty reward BEST holders receive is 0.5% per month with a minimum single trade of just €100. In addition, Bitpanda offers BEST holders a commission discount if they pay with BEST tokens, which is an additional benefit, especially as the €Euro value continues to move up. This loyalty reward system, i.o.o., is still undervalued and can attract much larger investors over time driving the value higher. The total number outstanding of issued BEST tokens will be limited to 500 million tokens. No Change.
13 March 2021: The 12% Rise of BEST this week, was partly due to a general advance of the crypto space towards the end of the week, but the most important reaction came on March 9 as Bitpanda announced an April 2021 launch of 24/7 zero commission fractional stock trading and ETF's on some of the most popular equities and a chance to win a TESLA model 3. BEST owners will benefit again. Technical analysis is still very much for short term play use, whilst volumes are not great yet. This will be a matter of time as this rapidly expanding European exchange continues to spread its wings and develop more products and launch more tokens and other tradeable markets. We are holding on to our core portfolio with a strategy to re-allocate average monthly transaction rewards of 0.8 to 0.9% percent into smaller crypto assets and altcoins with a strong underlying business concept. This is a very volatile market, but from a wealth management and risk perspective we prefer a more subtle approach with much smaller pieces of the crypto cake. In addition to Gold, Silver, Platinum and BEST, as core holdings, we currently also own and trade some NEM, Stellar, Polkadot, Ethereum and Pantos. Some other very interesting crypto names like Avalanche, Cardano and Chiliz have made such spectecular moves already in 2020 and Q1 2021 that we either missed that fast moving train or felt it became too speculative, even for a very small allocation. Bitpanda's move into 24/7 fractional stock trading from just a few Euro's will open a huge untapped market of mom and pop investors that can generate strong grket growth.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|96 (96)||76 (75)||80 (82)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
19 March 2021 close: The S&P index closed slightly lower again by just 1%. Stocks and this index as well as government bonds are still defying technical gravity as freely printed or just very cheap money is brought into the economy. With just about every asset class on a roll, this incredible financial market experience can be genuinely called the ultimate in popular delusions and madness of crowds. It just doesn't stop and it is scary. Hence our continued investment limitation to Precious metals and just a few promising crypto tokens. Crypto of course is also driving precious metals with relatively boring results into a position of lower investment interest. Today's high and ever increasing risk financial market is precisely the reason for keeping the vast majority of available funds in Gold, Silver and Platinum and the strong growth Bitpanda exchange. Smaller and higher risk investment in individual stocks and crypto tokens can be an attractive proposition only if a downside cushion has been established for the core portfolio of assets. We simply cannot see the upside for the S&P index as long as the technical tools in all time scales continue to develop bearish divergence as we move along. That is a risk that we must never take and it is 'only' an opportunity loss. Besides, the paper and real return on metals and crypto outweighs that equity market risk. No Change.
12 March 2021 close: We continue stay away from the equity market which continues to show a high risk picture even though Monthly and Weekly risk weight have turned down at this week's close. That in itself, especially weekly at 75% risk weight suggests another significant advance can materialize or not! Equities will have run their course in this primary major uptrend before many of the more promising crypto's do because many of these startup crypto's show more long term potential. 2021 will be a year where just about anything will be tokenized and connected allowing low to zero commission trading at high speed and very secure. This will lead to another year of significant growth in crypto irrespective of the direction of the major crypto currencies.
Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|75 (86)||87 (91)||48 (70)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
19 March 2021 close: Brent crude started the week a little unsettled which ended on Thursday with a major drop of nearly 15% from the earlier peak, closing at 64.50 on Friday. The drop was caused by a US report of continued and significant inventory build. However, such a move only develops if major market players are over exposed nearing the end of a financial quarter. Whilst international pressure for less use of fossil fuels keeps mounting, old style commodity markets interesting to monitor. Oil still looks heavy and higher risk as we have seen this week. No Change.
12 March 20212 close: Price action has gone way beyond our expectation and seems to confirm a very strong economic recovery as the world tries to start afresh after one year of lockdowns. Brent ias running into heavy resistance around the 70 handle combined with massive bearish risk weight to price divergence in the medium term time scale. This just isn't worth the risk especially without any fundamental evidence that fossil fuels will remain a primary source of energy.