Gold/USD risk prediction | 12 November 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Quarterly, Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) risk weight data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|33 (31)||75 (70)||91 (71)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
12 November: Gold appears to be finding more interest as other asset classes reach speculative extremes whilst keeping larger amounts cash in the bank is not really a very good option either. Gold preferably should find its support above the 2011 highs again to seriously create a larger market insurance platform. This moment will no doubt come as technicals point higher with Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly risk weight charts all pointing up.
05 November: A 1.8% price hike in the gold price was the final print for last week. Not spectecular and we sense the battle between Precious metals and other asset classes, in particular crypto, getting hotter. At face value, the AROI on Metals clearly appears less attractive an investment and the market seems to very much like the higher risk alternative. The convinving sounding narratives in both mainstream and alternative media drive more speculative interest into crypto which is surely eating away the precious metals market cap. A 4X crypto market will outpace the market cap of gold if the gold price holds at current level. A simple balanced portfolio that will largly preserve wealth relative to the future cost of goods and services is what we aim for. Until now we substantially outperformed that goal and feel very confortable with the present distribution including 12% of physical gold.
Gold risk weight already is trending up or has recently turned up in all time intervals, Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly. We will patiently monitor how this develops into 2022. No Change.