After 5 months, Silver looks ready to roll again | 25 June 2021
Silver Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.
SILVER FORECAST(Previous week in brackets)
|26.07 (25.74) ↓ 7.6%|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|% Risk Weight||78 (78)||62 (72)||13 (20)|
|PM Distribution Total allocation 50% (35%)||Pt:35%||Ag:30%||Au:35%|
25 June 2021 close: After 10 months of Silver/USDollar consolidation, Silver feels like bottoming soon. Against the USD it looks technically feasible to see one more drop from the Daily flag formation into the lower 25 handle, but the feeling is for Silver to bottom soon for a next major advance into new highs. The Gold Silver ratio supports this view with Gold/Silver ratio looking to break down again for a fresh move towards long term equilibrium. We are again looking to push more into the metals including silver to bring the balance of the 3 prime precious metals to exactly 1/3rd each. No Change for now.
18 June 2021 close: Monday morning action was halted due to hourly and 4 hourly stop signals, hence no small intended change to our metals portfolio. The consolidation 65-72 handle range that started in February feels like it wants to break south, but short term pressure keeps gold firm relative to silver, for now. Instead we may now be looking to add platinum due to continued weakness which is more likely to end soon as wasa expected since one week.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|10 (10)||47 (50)||72 (58)|
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Gold Silver ratio analysis
25 June 2021 close: 6 months of consolidation in a 15% max price range has not brought a major bottom in any relevant timescale. Monthly risk trend has traded around 5-10% for much of this year and doesn't appear finished on the downside. Weekly and daily risk weight is still pushing south. A break of the 2021 low sets up for a target towards the 2011 Gold/Silver ratio low of 30.45. Such a break, which requires at least a few days of close below 62.14 would be tempting to add an opportunity trade for Silver and possibly Platinum as well if that ratio to Silver continues to follow our expected pattern. The quarterly risk trend chart below has not finished either as we would expect a bottom closer to 5% which may happen based on a sizeable price move. No Change to our balanced metals portfolio distribution for now.
18 June 2021 close: At the close of business on June 18 the Gold/Silver ratio appears to be ready to still push higher whilst longer term signals look for a stronger silver. A potential push towards the 70 handle may develop short term bearish divergence, whilst that same push may have greater magnitude. The better risk approach is to stay neutral and maintain the present balanced mix. We are still looking to add a bit of silver from cash in order to complete an even balance of physical gold and silver.
25 June 2021 Daily Platinum risk raced up against Silver this week on a strong close at 88%. This could mean that Silver is seeking to act more in tandem with Platinum for a while. We still see this ratio turning back up and redeem or break the old average closer to 70.
18 June 2021 As the market retraced on unsubstantiated traders fear based on dollar strength Platinum continued to suffer. We only cover the Daily and Weekly chart this week as they tell a technical story of a lower risk Platinum allocation. Essentially a message to just stay with the current position whilst a more speculative position would be to swap some silver for Platinum. The longer term Monthly and Quarterly picture below will be updated again soon as they are not showing a particular change to direction, which is still up for Pt.
25 June 2021 We are keeping a manual calculation of risk weight and charts of the Platinum Silver ratio as there is no decent database available with the potential to analyse technical risk like most other asset classes and their ratio's. Besides, 100% physically backed Platinum is easy to trade at very reasonable commissions and storage through the rapidly expanding Bitpanda crypto platform. This ratio Weekly risk was at an extreme oversold position last week and has now moved away from that bottom and trending up again.
18 June 2021 The Weekly risk weight, like Daily, also dropped to near zero and supports holding Platinum at least equal to Silver. No Change.
25 June 2021 We are closing in on Month end which will be reported on next week with a view of the new July forward looking risk weight position. With Monthly risk weight now at 48% we would expect to see a much higher percentage risk once this market peaks.
04 June 2021 Monthly is likely to resume its uptrend as daily, and weekly, turns up from the recent downward correction.
25 June 2021 Quarterly Platinum/Silver ratio risk weight is still pointing down and the more likely scenario is a strong finishing move similar to that in 1985 and 2000. This quarterly risk is merely a guide to what we can expect long term and does not provide any shorter term trading guidance. Just that we need patience to let Platinum run its course.
04 June 2021 The Very Long term quarterly Platinum/Silver ratio correction cannot be called a long term turn of trend at this risk level of 60%. Bullish divergence between shorter time scale (daily/weekly) risk weight trends versus quarterly risk needs to be assessed as the market develops further in coming weeks.