LT Monthly and MT Weekly technically look like they need an extension into an overbought MT situation. This could develop with and without price movement of course and with a bullish diverging ST Daily vs Weekly and Monthly the risk of staying fully invested is small. No Change.

Last week: Hourly near oversold. ST Daily shows Bullish divergence versus MT Weekly.
The one year Gold uptrend in progress vs USD and all other fiat currencies did reach a temporary plateau 3 weeks ago. 90 years of technical analysis statistics learns that MT and LT overbought indicators are most likely to repeat themselves several times before a major trend ends and subsequently turns. Long term patience is likely to offer a big reward for any investor in insurance Gold and especially against USD once the Greenback finally starts that long expected downtrend and this pair reaches new all time highs. No Change

Gold/EUR	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↑ (N)	↓ (↓)	↑ (↓)
% Risk Weight	93 (90)	87 (85)	27 (12)
Allocation		100%(24/9) (70%)

Gold/GBP	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	93 (90)	72 (80)	15 (10)
Allocation		100%(24/9) (60%)

SILVER: Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP and Gold/Silver ratio

Silver/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	70 (67)	67 (78)	17 (27)
Allocation		100% (100%)

Silver/EUR	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	N (↓)
% Risk Weight	77 (77)	70 (80)	20 (30)
Allocation		100% (100%)

Silver/GBP	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	80 (80)	65 (77)	15 (20)
Allocation		100% (100%)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	55 (55)	30 (20)	78 (50)
Allocation		50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG)

The Euro is now struggling against the USD for a whole month. At the same time the Long Term Monthly risk weight is ready to turn up from a clear oversold level. No Change to maintain 100% long dollar transaction exposures covered. If we now see the Short Term Daily becoming low risk there will be a LT opportunity to take a speculative short dollar position against the Euro and any other major currency.

Last week: Whilst the LT risk weight is trying to find it bottom, the ST and MT risk weight continue to indicate more potential dollar weakness ahead. The ECB move last week caused a quick dollar rally based on nothing and only lasted 2 hours. That is a very positive technical signal and we strongly recommend staying fully covered on long USD exposures. At this point in time we would see little investment risk in a larger currency diversification away from USDollars. Last week's 3 hour double reversal could indicate a rapid dollar mini crash in case the Fed follows with another rate drop of any size. No change

Our analysis of last week expecting a slightly weaker CHF is still the dominant technical picture. If the Weekly time frame starts turning down as a result of a more rapid slide of the US Dollar, the Long Term Monthly may also turn back down again. In our view it be a matter of time before the USD makes a first dive into a fresh Long Term downtrend which could last many years as it always has in previous decades. No Change.

Last week: CHF has been relatively strong holding below par vs USDollar and steadily increasing its value vs EURO for nearly 3 years. Technically CHF/EURO price may start to turn and reverse because the LT risk weight looks extremely overbought. The result of this could be that CHF shows a weaker hand relatively to USD. Nonetheless we propose No Change to CHF reporting companies with Long USD transaction exposures. From an investment perspective CHF looks less attractive at this moment

The Short term Daily risk weight is overbought and turning down. It means Cable is likely to pause it recent uptrend and fresh cover can be delayed until the divergence between Daily and Long Term Monthly is reduced. Cable basic rally confirms the potential Long Term weakness of the Greenback. No Change.

Last week: NOTHING points towards imminent weakness of sterling or Cable for that matter. The ST Daily time frame is a little overbought but WITHOUT any price to risk weight bearish divergence. In fact the LT Monthly risk weight is turning up with bullish risk weight to price divergence. That means low risk and Long dollar exposures should remain fully covered. No Change

For 2 months the USD index has been trying to drive higher alternating up and down weeks. This story is definitely ending and the risk picture looks of course very similar to that of the USD vs other major currencies. No Change to stay with a fully covered long dollar risk.

Last week: The LT uptrend of USD vs the other majors appears to get really tired. ST is in downtrend and MT as well as LT can tip over anytime. Dollar weakness becoming a serious trend is a matter of time. No Change.

GBO/Euro has now advanced 7% from the recent August lows. It looks like a longer trend that appears to have been set in motion 6 weeks ago and we would look for a Short Term risk weight to price bearish divergence before allowing a lighter hedge of short Sterling exposure versus Euro. No Change for now.

Last week: As we expected GBP did become a low risk environment across the board. The 5% rally from recent lows does appear a little tired ST and new or expiring transaction exposures can be delayed for cover. In general, risk weight trend and levels demand short GBP exposures beyond 2 or 3 months to be fully covered.

This high spec bitcoin seems to have lost some market interest of late with much lower price volatility in a much narrower price range. As always we stay out of this market until it matures into a higher liquid less manipulative commodity.

Last week: Risk weight has not experienced an oversold condition since reaching the violent overbought conditions back in June July. Risk neutral means this market can go to 20,000 or back to this years lows and beyond. Highly speculative and we simply keep following developments with market interest but without investment interest. No Change

Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.

We have never before seen a market that has looked to tired for such a very long time and technically we have seen many Long Term and Medium Term bearish divergence signals and the index always recovered to generate a fresh divergence at new highs. For now we have NOT seen a new high in the Dow whilst risk weight remains high. This index remains poor risk as an investment. No Change.

Last week: Central Bankers worldwide or at least the Elite central bankers that do not allow everyone into their inner circle have a plan. Mainstreet financial media clearly love it and remain bullish. We don't know what the plan is but it is officially designed to take certain countries off the hook and to ensure the world economy remains robust. This could of course lead to much more stock for debt activity. Technically there is absolutely nothing to support a fresh upward price action into substantially higher levels. That technical risk is simply unacceptable and highly speculative. If anything both the Dow and S&P index are showing a succession of irregular tops with bearish divergence. We cannot begin to predict what will end this apparent madness in equities and only know that some day it will and will hurt many unaware participants creating a tsunami of sellers without bids. We stay out. No Change

Logically, as usual, the S&P shows a similar risk picture and this index covering many more companies is actually looking higher risk technically with LT and MT risk weight leaning towards an earlier turn down. The best outlook for fresh investment is one of huge patience and a much much lower price level. Individual promising start ups is another matter of course. No allocation to the Standard and Poor index, hence No Change.

Last week: All tools we cover with most weight on Slow Stochastic, MACD and RSI show bearish divergence. And that means high(er) risk. Higher risk means get out, which we have been for more than a year. In previous years we have seen bullish divergence between ST, MT and LT time frames. That was not the case in 2018 and is not the case in 2019 until now at least. Thus, same story as Dow Jones. Staying out and No Change

We have experience a positive influence of drones on our 50% investment allocation two weeks back. We commented interim on exiting the position with a nice opportunity profit last Monday and we are now looking to possibly re-enter upon a near gap fill in the Daily time frame. Brent would need to drop to very near 60.22 in order to make that happen. History learns that gaps tend to being filled and usually fairly quickly. With that risk in mind we follow this market with great interest.

Last week: Our long position as per 10 days ago is already being challenged in ST and LT time frames. We wish to see a bearish divergence developing in the ST to determine whether the position should be abolished. This is not a matter of price movement. Only risk weight level and trend determines the length and size of a transaction.
Note: The effect of drone attacks on the Aramco refinery may or may not be fundamental to future price development but statistically such events only have short term to medium term effect unless they support an already established trend. If a trend is up any presumed negative influences will be very short lived and vice versa as there are always many more fundamental parameters to consider to make a reliable ST or MT forecast let alone LT. No Change