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Gold/USD

LT trend are supportive of a firm trend change. Hourly being down and high risk we wait for a slightly lower entry point at any level as soon as hourly trend turns Up and raise allocation to 80%. (We remain cautious and stay with 60% gold allocation)

Silver/USD

With LT trends Up and Hourly down in higher risk we wait for Hourly to turn up again and increase holding to 60%. As soon as Silver starts taking a lead again in the metals space we shall increase further. (LT risk still down Dec 7. No change in allocation. For a serious trend change in the Metals space Silver usually takes a lead. That has not happened yet)

Gold/EUR

As Daily in higher risk and turning down with LT strongly Up we remain very positive but could see weaker advance due to USdollar looking relatively weaker. As soon as Hourly turns back up we will increase to 80% allocation of core position. (More range trading expected. Technically, risk weight a bit more positive this week. No change in allocation)

Silver/EUR

As soon as hourly turns back Up we want to increase allocation to 60%. (Weekly turned up whilst Daily turned down. This pair still looks range bound. No change in allocation)

Gold/GBP

Fresh Dec data show a fairly strong LT Uptrend. With Daily and Hourly now in higher risk down trend we wait for the Daily to turn Up to increase allocation. As this may take a little while we keep Gold allocation vs GBP at 60%. (Both Daily and Weekly trends turned (Up). Risk weight favours a slight increase of allocation to 60% from 50%)

Silver/GBP

As soon as Hourly trend turns back Up, irrespective of price level we wish to increase allocation to 60% (Trend and Risk weight look fairly neutral with a bias o Silver ownership. NO change in 50% allocation)

Gold/Silver Ratio

Weekly turned Down with monthly advancing 10 risk points. This now favours a slight overweight of Silver. Typically a Flat position is at least 80%-100% allocated to Gold and only 0-20% to Silver in a long term lock up. The new Dec picture would favor a slightly higher Silver content of 30%. Once the ratio starts its down turn in earnest the Silver content will be increased to max 50%. Historic risk favours a permanent Gold holding. (The 25 year high close around 86.00 and LT trend still up we still cannot call a top for the ratio even though tempting sometimes. As a result Silver can still not be seen as the leading metal. Owning Precious metals and probably from a higher base allocation seems evident because almost all LT Metals trends have a lower risk weight and/or in an uptrend. We remain flat, i.e no overweight for Gold or Silver) All time high: 1941 = 97, 1991 = 90

Euro/USD

We expect another range week but with Monthly trend risk now in sub 10% area the LT USDollar uptrend is getting exhausted. Transaction risk favours a full hedge of short EUR position at 100% within the policy risk horizon, typically 6 months or 12 months forward. (Another week of 1% rangebound sideways extension. Daily trend turned (Up) from (Down) but looking neutral. No change from last week)

Dow Jones

Last week rally lost all of its gains again and with Dec LT trend now firmly established Down this index looks very high risk. No change in 0% allocation. (Last week's Daily Low risk pushed the market strongly higher with a near 1200 point recovery. This rally could now last a bit longer but will likely find strong resistance given the continued downtrend at the long end)