Risk awareness limits short term opportunity

Technicals show increasing risk in most asset classes. Where risk is unacceptably high we remain underinvested or Out. We do not apply an aggressive trading position in this weekly update unless the long term technical position demands it.
Gold recently recorded new all time highs against Scandies Aussie and CAD.

Gold/USD

Charting statistics favor a fresh convergence between ST Daily and MT weekly risk weight. Weekly risk has not yet shown a risk weight to price divergence which is more typical for an intermediate top. We therefore stay with the LT trend.

(LT trend still prevails. Developing divergence between ST Daily and MT Weekly. Prognoses for a week of sideways price range action. No Change in full gold allocation)

Silver/USD

Price is holding after two weeks of relative weakness. No change in full allocation. Divergence between Daily (oversold) and Weekly (a higher risk level price reaction) and Monthly in a low to medium risk Uptrend supports the risk position taken many months ago.
Hourly divergence with daily may put a little pressure on price at open Monday.

(The relatively sharp drop is a deja vu event. We do not change our long position due to developing divergence between Daily and Weekly risk weight)

Gold/EUR

LT trend Monthly turned back up laast week. This is intra-month and only a month-end trend change determines the final call which can often be pre-empted via the Weekly and Daily risk weight levels. Price recovered 50% of the recent decline and present divergence between Daily and Weekly/Monthly favours a no change full allocation.

(LT Monthly trend turned down on the first trading day. Divergence between Daily and Weekly risk weight is reason to expect decent upward pressure and stay with allocation)

Silver/EUR

Similar to Gold/EUR the expected price support did materialise. Current risk weight levels support staying fully allocated.

(We expect upward pressure after rapid ST decline with divergence between ST Daily and Weekly. No change in allocation)

Gold/GBP

Price weakness and foiund support followed by recovery last week together with a low risk ST Uptrend favours staying fully allocated.

(All time frames are down. Risk weight divergence between MT and ST is no reason not to stay fully allocated)

Silver/GBP

There is no technical evidence that the LT rally that started to take shape since early November is ending with the recent price reaction. No change.

(The present reversal technically looks to build another return to price strength.
We stay fully allocated)

Gold/Silver Ratio

The risk weight and price picture remains somewhat mixed. The intra-month LT Uptrend is not a signal further upcoming relative Silver weakness. ST HOurly may push prices a little higher on Monday but Daily favours ratio weakness which could drag the MT weakly with it. We stay with a 50/50 Gold silver risk allocation.

(Silver again lead the weakness of the primary Precious metals this week causing the ratio to advance. Palladium and Platinum showed strong relative performance. Risk weight with exception of MT Weekly remains high and supports staying with a 50/50 ratio allocation)

Euro/USD

Last week's Dollar strength has now driven all relevant times frames into support zones. The risk analysis still favours long dollar exposures to remain fully hedged.

(No Change. Long dollar transaction risk to remain fully covered)

Dow Jones

Continued Central Bank favoured low rates together with continued liquidity support still drives this and almost all equity indices around the globe. Afterr some weakness late last week we could see a bit of strength into the coming week, but MT and LT risk weight do call for an extremely cautious approach to fresh investment.

(Mixed picture with ST and MT vulnerability, i.e downside risk. We stay uninvested until the market shows clear oversold conditions. The opposite is technicaly more evident at this moment)