USD/Swiss franc

As the LT trend just changed to down any ST and MT lift is an opportunity to full cover any long dollar positions.

(Same as Euro. Long dollar position fully hedged, Shorts as per spot expiry)

British Pound/USD

Short GBP/Long USD positions must be 100% covered. Any short term GBP weakness, which can easily be driven by Brexit issues is an opportunity to establish fully hedged positions and even for the maximum possible transaction risk time frame. This pair almost tells the story of a No Deal extended membership obligation or even No Brexit outcome being positive for Cable.

(Same as EUR and CHF. Last week's ST scare cable drop was fully recovered and more likely to start a new trend up)

British Pound/Euro

GBP did gain weight last week, but from a pure risk point of view it is wise to remain half covered on any transaction risk exposure time frame. Our bias however, looking at trend and risk weight favors GBP.

(GBP looks a little stronger than EUR after the very weak New Year opening. However we recommend no change in 50% hedge either way because the LT trend is still down)

Bitcoin/USD

The very recent ST and MT rally never finished and turned down with prices last week. This is not a normal market and as long as LT trend remains down even though low risk weight in all time frames, the fact that there is a gap to be filled lower down keeps us out of this market. This market is manipulated and one cannot count on high liquidity for more serious size investors.

(If this were a less manipulated market we might look to some upside exposure if LT direction changes from a low risk weight reading. Weekly MT has turned up bt Daily is not showing a strong hand yet.
This market will require some serious convincing that it still has a role to play in the financial industry.
For now selling into a ST vs MT and LT diverging risk weight rally, for those still long BTWC, seems the better formula.

Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.)

Standard & Poor 500

Same strong rally last week. The technical picture very much points towards a correction in a major downtrend. This is not a risk to start a fresh long position that has serious potential. We stay out.

(S&P shows the exact same picture as DJII. Market re-attempts the BTFD strategy and may take the market a little higher. This is more likely to fail this time. NO change in 0% allocation)

Dollar Index

We could see a bit of range and up for the USD, but the main trend is LT and MT = Down.
No long dollar positions as that risk is high.

(This Index looks weak LT and MT and should be expected to continue weak for some time to come. No ST Daily price to risk weight divergence either which increases the risk of a substantial move against the USD. It does not say the Dolar will move doiwn substantially, just that the risk of that happening is greater than the oppositie direction)

Crude Oil

This market is showing divergence between daily and Weekly whilst the LT trend is down. The strong rally of the past two weeks has not removed the major risk position which is for this market to first finish the LT downtrend. We don't know at which level that may be, which could be at current levels at a later date or much lower levels. And that is where risk tells us to stay out.

(The strong rally into the New Year did not come as a surprise, but this market will meet resistance due to the speed of the decline the past few months. Hence risk position remains at 0% allocation until volatility subdues. We manage risk and LT that remains to the Downside for now, although we are aware of the speed at which LT risk weight is diminishing)