USD/Swiss franc

Last week $/Swiss recovered 50% of the 10 wk downtrend that started in November. Technical bias is for Long dollar exposures to remain fully hedged.

(As the LT trend just changed to down any ST and MT lift is an opportunity to full cover any long dollar positions)

British Pound/USD

Early week votes in parliament only had a very brief violent 1.5% crash effect on GBP which thereafter quickly recovered to end the week nearly unch. Divergence between Hourly and Daily risk weight is reason to stay with the MT and LT trend and remain fully hedged on Short cable exposures.

(Short GBP/Long USD positions must be 100% covered. Any short term GBP weakness, which can easily be driven by Brexit issues is an opportunity to establish fully hedged positions and even for the maximum possible transaction risk time frame. This pair almost tells the story of a No Deal extended membership obligation or even No Brexit outcome being positive for Cable)

British Pound/Euro

GBP vs Eur remains uncertain. Current technical spectrum eyes for more sideways action near term. No change to 50% cover.

(GBP did gain weight last week, but from a pure risk point of view it is wise to remain half covered on any transaction risk exposure time frame. Our bias however, looking at trend and risk weight favors GBP)

Bitcoin/USD

BTC keeps finding resistance with every short term rally. Probable fake news that Russia is a large potential buyer of BTC to frustrate the USA and diversify further away from the world reserve currency in itself is a joke. A dangerous play not to be touched for serious investors.

(The very recent ST and MT rally never finished and turned down with prices last week. This is not a normal market and as long as LT trend remains down even though low risk weight in all time frames, the fact that there is a gap to be filled lower down keeps us out of this market. This market is manipulated and one cannot count on high liquidity for more serious size investors

Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.)

Standard & Poor 500

The S&P has recovered 50% from its decline that started early October. The same analysis applies as with DJII. Longs are pure speculative without technical support. Stay out.

(Same strong rally last week. The technical picture very much points towards a correction in a major downtrend. This is not a risk to start a fresh long position that has serious potential. We stay out)

Dollar Index

The index strengthened broadly attempting to reach a 3 months trading range around 97.00. The LT high risk weight means absolute caution for long dollar exposures. Full hedge against majors.

(We could see a bit of range and up for the USD, but the main trend is LT and MT = Down.
No long dollar positions as that risk is high)

Crude Oil

LT trend remains firmly down in spite of January action so far recovering the entire Dec decline. Daily (ST) high risk weight is in divergence relative to Weekly (MT) and Monthly (LT). We are not yet ready to invest in Oil. Possibly an opportunity loss but further downside risk simply must be respected.

(This market is showing divergence between daily and Weekly whilst the LT trend is down. The strong rally of the past two weeks has not removed the major risk position which is for this market to first finish the LT downtrend. We don't know at which level that may be, which could be at current levels at a later date or much lower levels. And that is where risk tells us to stay out)