GOLD & SILVER vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP, Ratio
Gold / USD
Risk has further diminished with weekly turning up and daily in uptrend. Allocation increased to 60%.
| Gold/USD | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 1202 (1192) |
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| Trend Direction | N (N) | Up (N) | Up (Down) | Up |
| Risk Weight | 15-20 (15-20) | 25-35 (25-35) | 60-65 (20-25) | 60-70 |
| Allocation | 60% (50%) |
Silver / USD
Last week’s rapid change of trend will develop more volatility short term whilst seeking firm direction. Allocation increase to 20% from 15%.
| Silver/USD | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 14.60 (14.60) |
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| Trend Direction | Down (Down) | Up (N) | D (N) | N |
| Risk Weight | 10-20 (10-20) | 10-20 (15-20) | 65-70 (70-75) | 55-60 |
| Allocation | 20% (15%) |
Gold / EUR
Divergence between daily and LT risk may cause a pause. LT risk is low henced no change in allocation.
| Gold/EUR | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 1038 (1015) |
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| Trend Direction | Up (N) | Up (Up) | Up (Up) | Up |
| Risk Weight | 5-10 (5-10) | 5-15 (5-10) | 85-90 (25-30) | 65-70 |
| Allocation | 75% (75%) |
Silver / EUR
Anticipate a smaller divergence between short and LT time frames. Low risk weight LT then warrents an allocation increase to 25%.
| Silver/EUR | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 12.66 (12.62) |
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| Trend Direction | Down (Down) | Up (Up) | Down (Up) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 10-20 (10-20) | 10-20 (10-20) | 70-80 (75-80) | 50-55 |
| Allocation | 25% (20%) |
Gold / GBP
Last week’s rapid strength dued to a stronger dollar has slightly increased risk of short term reaction. LT remains in favor of trend change. No change in allocation.
| Gold/GBP | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 916 (914) |
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| Trend Direction | N (N) | 10-20 (Up) | Down (Up) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 10 (5-10) | 10-20 (10-20) | 65-75 (15-25) | 10-20 |
| Allocation | 70% (70%) |
Silver / GBP
Sideways price expected due to short term turning towards LT low risk. No change in allocation. (Risk weight turning positive. Allocation increase to 40%)
| Silver/GBP | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 11.12 (11.20) |
Oct 1 | |||
| Trend Direction | Down (Down) | Up (Up) | Down (Up) | D |
| Risk Weight | 10-15 (10-20) | 10-20 (10-25) | 60-70 (70-75) | 20-30 |
| Allocation | 40% (40%) |
Gold / Silver Ratio
Ratio shows indiciveness. Returning to Flat allocation looking for firm direction. (Weight can remain on holding Silver. Short term price reaction up followed by further downward pressure most likely)
All time high: 1941 = 97, 1991 = 90
| AU/AG Ratio | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 81.95 (81.15) |
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| Trend Direction | Up (Up) | Down (Down) | Up (Down) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 60-70 (60-70) | 60-75 (60-75) | 20-30 (5-15) | 40-50 |
| Allocation | Flat |
EUR/USD, USD/CHF GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, Bitcoin
Euro / USD
A more rapid USD advance last week calls for caution. We reduce our hedge to 40% from 70%. (Turned down last week as ST diverged from LT. The picture looks to turn in favor of USD for a while shifting weight to a 70% EUR hedge)
| EUR/USD | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 1.1525 (1.1745) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Down (Down) | Down (Down) | N (Down) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 20-30 (25-30) | 60-65 (65) | 10-15 (20-40) | 50-60 |
| Allocation | 40% hedge (70% hedge) |
British Pound / USD
The long term risk increasingly pictures a stronger pound vs USD. Early weakness coming calls for entry to a 70% hedge for Sterling shorts. GBP longs risk is lower. (Still undecided. Risk of imminent larger hedge either way is too early to call)
| Cable | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 1.3120 (1.3055) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Down (Down) | Up (Up) | Up (Down) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 20-25 (20-30) | 50-55 (35-45) | 15-25 (30-40) | 85-90 |
| Allocation | 70% hedge GBP shorts |
USD / Swiss franc
No change allocation. Could see bit of initial strenght beginning of week then weakness as daily divergence kicks in. Dollar uptick last week bit too quick. (USD up against all majors. Risk weight still calls for larger USD hedge vs CHF especially if price reaches the 1.00 level which has proven peak territory the past 5 years.
| USD/CHF | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 0.9900 (0.9807) |
||||
| Trend Direction | N (Down) | Up (Up) | Down (Down) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 70 (65) | 25-40 (20-40) | 90-95 (80-95) | 5-10 |
| Allocation | 70% hedge (70% hedge) |
British Pound / Euro
GBP risk looks it could advance a bit further vs EUR. Hedge allocation for GBP longs reduced from 80% to 50%. (In spite of a slightly stronger GBP, the risk weight remains N on avg and demands prudence with no change in hedge allocation)
80% short means long exposures should have risk cover of 80% (and vv))
| GBP/EUR | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 28 close 1.1380 (1.1215) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Up (Down) | Up (Up) | Up (Up) | N |
| Risk Weight | 50-60 (50) | 50-60 (45-50) | 80-90 (60-65) | 85-90 |
| Allocation | 50% long edge (80% hedge) |
Bitcoin / USD
No change. (This market still gives little clue. Could be lack of liquidity with traders on the sidelines. Following daily risk, no change, stay out)
Potential gaps to fill at 5838, 4330 and 2828.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.
| BTC/USD | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 6615 (6635) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Down (N) | N (N) | Up (Up) | Up |
| Risk Weight | 20-25 (20-25) | 30-35 (30-35) | 50-60 (65-70) | 25-30 |
| Allocation |
US30, S&P500, Dollar Index, Brent crude oil
Dow Jones
Very high risk market. No change as weekly has turned down (The short picture, like all summer, is for this market to push and push, But LT risk for imminent turn down is higher again. 0% allocation to avoid ultimate risk)
| US30 | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 26447 (26458) |
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| Trend Direction | Up (Up) | Down (N) | Down (Down) | Up |
| Risk Weight | 80-90 (75-90) | 80-90 (95) | 70-80 (70-75) | 25-35 |
| Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Standard & Poor 500
0% allocation. Market looks higher risk this week than last with a 2% price slide. (Another quarterly high close. LT Risk has become outside category and this market is only for short term traders with back up liquidity)
| S&P500 | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 2885 (2933) |
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| Trend Direction | Up (Up) | Down (N) | Down (Up) | Up |
| Risk Weight | 90-95 (85-95) | 90-95 (90-95) | 45-60 (65-75) | 30-35 |
| Allocation | 0% (0%) |
Dollar Index
Although the USD looks toppish vs majors, the index may continue to show relative strength. No change in allocation. (The index strengthened and still looks it may continue in the coming week. Risk is short term range bound with LT risk increasing every month, but not yet critical)
| USDIndex | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 95.60 (95.15) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Up (Up) | Up (Down) | Up (N) | N |
| Risk Weight | 70-80 (70-80) | 35-40 (30-35) | 60-80 (15) | 20-30 |
| Allocation | 50% |
Crude Oil
Further push up this week has only increased the same risk. 0% allocation. (The 2 1/2% upward price movement caused monthly, weekly and daily risk weight levels to show high a risk price alert. Allocation down from 30% to 0%)
| Brent | Month | Week | Day | Hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 close 84.11 (82.73) |
||||
| Trend Direction | Down Down) | Up (Up) | Down (N) | Down |
| Risk Weight | 90-95 (90-95) | 85-90 (85-95) | 80-90 (85) | 15-20 |
| Allocation | 0% (30%) |