Metals – FX- Indices – update – close 5 April 2019

Precious Metals: Gold & Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP and Ratio

Gold/USD Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 1292 (1291)
Trend Direction Down (Up) Down (Down) Up (Down) Down
Risk Weight 65-70 (65-75) 40-55 (55-60) 20-25 (25-55) 80-85
Allocation 50% (100%)

The present technical picture forces a (possibly temporary) reduction of the position to 50% of allocation. Given the continued high risk position of the other major asset classes the allocation will continue to be held based on the statistical minimum required portfolio asset allocation of Gold (typically 5-10% against most currrencies)

(Gold finished Q1 on a weakish note, but the LT uptrend that theoretically started at 1160 in August last year still prevails. MT and ST is a mixed picture. We stay with the position)


Silver/USD Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 15.40 (15.40)
Trend Direction Down (Up) Down (Down) Up (Down) Down
Risk Weight 35-45 (40-50) 30-45 (40-50) 25-30 (25-45) 15-25
Allocation 50% (100%)

Silver USD shows similar higher risk of temporary correction as Gold and performs the same asset risk protection. Hence staying with 50% of allocation.

(All time frames show mixed Risk weight. With Q1 monthly LT trend still up and the Nov 2018 support at around 14.00 we stay with the position)


Gold/EUR Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 1144 (1151)
Trend Direction Down (Up) Down (Down) Down (Down) Down
Risk Weight 75-85 (85-90) 50-60 (60-65) 35-45 (40-65) 55-75
Allocation 50% (100%)

As per last week's analysis we have reduced our allocation to 50%.

(Gold/EUR show a mixed picture. the LT trend at Q1 close is still up and ST and MT could easily turn back up from neutral risk weight levels. Channel support should hold. If Gold drops through 1145 on hourly close we need to (temporarily) reduce our allocation to 50%. This protects the position taken near the 1050 level)


Silver/EUR Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 13.43 (13.49)
Trend Direction Down (Up) Down (Down) Down (Down) Down
Risk Weight 50-60 (55-60) 40-50 (50-55) 30-40 (30-55) 15-25
Allocation 50% (100%)

The technical picture shows short term higher risk of further correction. We reduce the allocation to 50% (A full allocation typically represents a minimum % protection in a fully allocated portfolio across asset classes. This protection level should vary between 5% (institutional) to 25% (private).

(A daily close below 13.00 is reason to protect position risk and reduce to 50% allocation. The LT trend that started at 12.00 is still in play at medium risk weight, hence every possibility for a resumption into the LT trend up)


Gold/GBP Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 990 (991)
Trend Direction Down (Down) Up (Down) Up (Down) Down
Risk Weight 65-75 (70-80) 30-35 (25-30) 30-35 (55-70) 65-75
Allocation 100% (100%)

No change. A close below 971 triggers a 50% reduction of allocation.

(Everything GBP is influenced by Brexit jitters. The risk picture is still relatively positive however a daily close below the March low at 971 is reason to reduce allocation (temporarily) to 50%)


Silver/GBP Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 11.55 (11.60)
Trend Direction Down (Down) Down (Down) Up (Down) Down
Risk Weight 40-50 (50-55) 15-20 (15-25) 25-30 (30-45) 15-30
Allocation 100% (100%)

A daily close below 11.40 is reason to (temporarily) reduce the allocation to 50%. No change for now.

(Brexit jitters the past three weeks but the 11.45 level has held every time. A daily close below 11.40 is reason to (temporarily) reduce the allocation to 50%. Risk weight is medium to low in all time frames, thus lT risk remains more positive for Silver vs GBP)


GOLD/SILVER Ratio Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 85.26 (85.20)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Up) Down (Down) Down
Risk Weight 75-85 (70-75) 80-85 (80-85) 45-55 (75-85) 70-85
Allocation 50% AG (50% AG)

Investors in PM should maintain the ration at 50% Gold and 50% Silver. (It looks like Palladium peak is in the Platinum finally eyes more positive. An partial 1/3rd allocation to Pt is an acceptable option.

(The ratio keeps turning up and down within relatively tight range and trades close to the 5 peaks seen during the past 20 years. As markets ALWAYS return to their equilibrium, this market has large downside risk. Daily divergence, turning down, is reason to stay with the 50/50 Gold/Silver allocation)


FX: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, Bitcoin

EUR/USD Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 1.1212 (1.1216)
Trend Direction Down (Down) Down (Down) Up (Down) Down
Risk Weight 5-10 (10-15) 15-25 (25-30) 10-20 (10-25) 10-15
Allocation 100% (100% hedge)

No change. Current moments of dollar strength appear to produce low risk weight levels in all time frames. Trump talk does not translate into a risk of Long term dollar strength.

(The dollar showed strength last week and trades at the lows of a 20 week trading range between 1.12 and 1.16. Risk weight across time frames favors keeping long dollars hedged (against the very short trend))


USD/CHF Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 0.9990 (0.9950)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Down (Down) Up (Up) Down
Risk Weight 75-85 (75-80) 55-65 (60-70) 60-70 (20-25) 30-45
Allocation 100% unch

A mixed picture still requires long dollar exposures to remain fully hedged.

(A weak 1/2% rally emerged last week. This could continue but the MT outlook is for the 0.9800 1.0200 range to be in play for a while longer. The much higher LT risk weight favors staying with full dollar hedge)


GBP/USD (Cable) Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 1.3025 (1.3030)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Down (Down) Down (Down) Up
Risk Weight 30-40 (30-40) 70-75 (75-80) 30-45 (50-60) 30-40
Allocation 100% (100%)

GBP is holding its own in spite of continued Brexit uncertainty. From a hedge perspective we would reduce to 70% on a close below 1.2770. No change for now.

(GBP dropped towards the lows of the 5 week trading range between 130.00 and 1.3300. Risk weight across time frames with daily having diverged from weekly still favors a hedge. From a speculative risk perspective the position should be reduced to 50% with a daily close below 1.2770., just above the level in January when we raised to 100%. From a hedge perspective we would reduce to 70% on a close below 1.2770)


GBP/EUR Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 1.1610 (1.1595)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Down (Down) Down (Down) Up
Risk Weight 75-80 (65-80) 75-85 (80-85) 60-70 (50-60) 35-40
Allocation 50% (50%)

No change from last week. Mixed picture with risk weight leaning slightly towards drifting down a little.

(We reduce the position to 50% hedge. Looking at risk weight and trend at the end of Q1, the risk of a rapid Sterling price increase seems small and looking to possibly pick up Sterling on a temporary further correction. This is meant to be a low risk temporary treasury play which may require some quick re-entry action on a GBP drop)


BITCOIN BTC/USD Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 5000 (4100)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Up) Down (Up) Up
Risk Weight 5-15 (0-10) 80-85 (75-85) 75-85 (75-85) 45-55
Allocation 0% (0%)

A relatively large 20% rally materialized the past week. Highly speculative upward pressure can easily expand, but this remain a very high risk price point with evident divergence between MT AND LT risk weight.

(BTC is approaching the Febr 4200 high. Daily(ST) and Weekly(MT) are both approaching substantial divergence from Monthly. 4200 is very high risk, NOT the start of an uptrend towards 10k)

Remaining 'opening up' gap still to fill at 2828. We exclude weekend action to determine opening gaps as major players are not participating in size.
If this market is poised to turn from extremely overbought (Dec 2017) to completely oversold, it doesn't appear to be finished.)


INDEX: US30, S&P500, Dollar Index, Brent crude oil
US30 Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 26426 (25928)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Up) Up (Up) Down
Risk Weight 75-85 (60-75) 85-95 (85-90) 90-95 (50-60) 30-35
Allocation 0% (0%)

MAINSTREAM is talking the market up supported by continued monetary financing and very low rates. Technical picture does not support this Index to be driven substantially higher. If the highs of last year are taken out, a substantial and rapid spike is still possible, but cannot be supported by technical risk weight which is already very high again. It is good luck to speculators whilst we advise a risk averse approach.

(We're in a 1000 point trading range the last 5 weeks. Risk weight and trend shows a potential price rise early in the 1st Q2 week likely making a new 4 months high. As we can only play LT low risk entry and no ST trading we will not touch this market. There simply is no low risk LT entry at current levels)


Standard & Poor 500 Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 2893 (2834)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Down) Up (N) Up
Risk Weight 70-85 (60-75) 90-95 (90-95) 90-95 (65) 80-90
Allocation 0% (0%)

The same reason and picture applies to S&P even though all times frames are up. The high price to high risk weight technical picture favors a very careful investment approach for equities.

(S&P shows the same risk weight/trend outcome as INDU. It could easily achieve a new 4 months high, but with high risk particularly in the Weekly (MT) time frame. No change)


USD Index Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 97.36 (97.20)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Up) Up (Up) Down
Risk Weight 85-90 (80-85) 65-75 (60-65) 80-85 (70-90) 65-75
Allocation 100% (100%)

The dollar shows very high risk weight levels in ST and MT time frames. This risk must not be ignored and long dollar transaction exposures should continue to be fully hedged. Any short term expiries at slightly higher dollar levels should not represent a business risk. Keeping an eye on economic risk exposures may also become more opportune at this stage.

(The Dollar Index drives the same story as with the Majors above. A further ST dollar rally is possible and likely to stall thereafter. The reverse Risk weight/Price divergence (Higher risk weight whilst lower price high) indicates a higher chance of reaching 90.00 before 100.00. Long dollar transaction exposures should remain fully hedged)


Brent Month Week Day Hour
Close 5 April: 70-48 (67.55)
Trend Direction Up (Up) Up (Up) Up (Down) Up
Risk Weight 40-50 (25-40) 90-95 (90-95) 85-90 (60-70) 95-100
Allocation 0% (0%)

the technical risk weight in all time frames does not support a reason for a sustained price advance. This market actually is becoming very high risk again. No change.

(The fast price drop from 85 to 50 since October into Christmas and subsequent 50% correction logically hints towards economic contraction in the making. With narrowing weekly risk weight over 90 this market remains high risk and not ready for a LT low risk entry. No change)

Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast.

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