Prediction for Gold and Silver at close 19 June, 2020
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) – Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) – Short Term Daily (ST-D) – and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Gold/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1742 (1729) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
87 (87) | 85 (85) | 78 (73) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Gold/USD live price
12 June: Whilst the Gold derivatives markets continues to dominate price discovery for traders and miners and thus determines the price of physical metals, it is becoming increasingly clear that holding physical gold and silver is the lowest price for risk insurance one can buy. There aren’t many companies in the world that can truly offer unencumbered ownership of physical gold unless you buy small quantities of the real metal from an online shop. For hedging speculative long physical gold or silver only writing calls or selling gold and silver futures is an acceptable lower risk trade. This weeks close pushed the price back up to where it was 2 weeks ago and the advance is far from over because we haven’t seen extremes yet in the longer term time frames whilst we expect a bearish divergence formation first in both the Monthly and Weekly risk weight periods. This means the price is likely to continue its primary uptrend well into Q4 at least. Unless a ‘reset’ event occurs sooner, but that also is pure speculation.
The short term bullish divergence as discussed last week (see below) materialized and we may now expect a break of the recents highs (1765) into the low 1800’s soon and finish an intermediate advance. It took only 2 months for the Gold market feature a large $300 rally and it has now taken a 4 week breather. This is very strong performance indeed and indicates massive fear of international monetary discomfort. No Change. Stay fully invested in Gold
SILVER FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
Silver/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17.58 (17.42) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
57 (55) | 85 (82) | 37 (56) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Silver/USD live price
12 June: With daily risk further down, Weekly up in higher risk area with Monthly up at a neutral level the technical picture has not changed much from last week. Still possible to drop into support at 16.80 level but this would diverge daily vs weekly in a positive sense for Silver, wich can then resume its long term upward trend. No change
GOLD/SILVER Ratio Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
GOLD/SILVER Ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
98.56 (98.45) | ||||||
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
54 (54) | 12 (18) | 66 (38) | |||
Allocation | 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG) |
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
12 June: Last week’s technical analysis still holds. We expect the Short term Daily to advance a little further before the downtrend can resume in tandem with the Long term months risk weight trend (down). It means that Sillver still may underperform Gold for a few more days this coming week. No Change
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