Precious Metals long term wealth insurance
13 May 2022 close: Metals and especially silver suffered last week on higher interest rates and probably some general market nervousness.
Our positions remain unchanged with an even 3 way balance between Gold, Silver and Platinum, where Platinum continues to look strong against Silver and Gold in spite of recent weakness.
Technically Gold looks a little stronger short term against the USD, although Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly are all showing a firm downtrend. Further price erosion however looks to quickly bring about low risk weight in the key Weekly and Monthly time intervals. We see that the coming days may harden the technical picture. A rally into the coming week may either confirm longer term weakness or a break back up. So, these technicals do make us less certain, but having our base currency in Euro and the much higher inflation economic environment plus the unlikely event of central bank tapering (IOO), Precious Metals remain the centrepoint of our risk insurance. Metals may react adversely intially as certain bubble assets feel more price pressure and metals simply move along that path intially. This could last several months.
If the war in Ukraine comes to a sudden halt however, we could experience a fairly massive 'sigh of relief' rally in equities and pressure on Metals and various other key commodities like Oil.
01 April 2022 close: Traditional market risk appears to be ignored whilst it feels like there is more global financial and geopolitical uncertainty than ever before. Market participants, whether in stocks, bonds, metals or crypto put full trust in their risk on positions across asset classes. This high risk and hugely opportunistic, in our view, approach is better avoided. As inflation with increased risk of stagflation is moving into the system, we simply stay put with a 50% metals portfolio and roughloy equal weight between Gold, Silver and Platinum. Gold closed Q1 at $1924 which is around the 2011 high whilst Gold vs Euro reached it initial upper resistance target at €1872 briefly touching €1900 before settling back. Metals are not in favor which is a good reason to stay firm on these holdings. The Quarterly Gold risk chart is still in an unfinished uptrend and supports the ongoing monthly uptrend since Nov 2021. Longer term support is at $1810. A clear break of $1960 is positive for a stronger short and medium term advance.
Gold/USD live price
see full page chart
Gold/USD Quarterly close risk chart
Gold/USD risk position relative to
Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and Daily risk weight data.
(Previous update in brackets)
| Gold/USD | Monthly | Weekly | Daily | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1810 (1924) |
||||||
| Au Trend | ↓ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| Au % Risk Weight |
56 (64) | 35 (60) | 8 (40) | |||
| Total PM Portfolio allocation 50% (40%) breakdown: |
Au:12% | Ag:14% | Pt:14% | |||
Gold looks technically weaker, but… | 13/5/22
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Precious metals
Latest Posts
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 23 Dec 2018
Gold/USD We are raising allocation to Gold to 100% of the Portfolio allocation maximum within a diversified portfolio. This maximum is of course a matter of personal preference. That preferred allocation to gold can now be increased to further limit any major exposure to the banking sector due to a relatively and uncomfortably higher cash level. (Any medium term to […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 17 Dec 2018
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP, Ratio Gold/USD Any medium term to short term weakness is strongly defended by the LT uptrend. No divergence and allocation holds. (LT trend are supportive of a firm trend change. Hourly being down and high risk we wait for a slightly lower entry point at any level as soon as […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 9 Dec 2018
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP, Ratio Gold/USD LT trend are supportive of a firm trend change. Hourly being down and high risk we wait for a slightly lower entry point at any level as soon as hourly trend turns Up and raise allocation to 80%. (We remain cautious and stay with 60% gold allocation) Gold/USD […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 2 Dec 2018
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP, Ratio Gold/USD We remain cautious and stay with 60% gold allocation. (Our gold allocation vs USD remains 60%. This pair has still not confirmed a full allocation even though other asset classes remain more vulnerable and would justify a higher allocation to Gold. Within any asset allocation policy Gold must […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 25 Nov 2018
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver vs US Dollar, Euro, GBP, Ratio Gold/USD Our gold allocation vs USD remains 60%. This pair has still not confirmed a full allocation even though other asset classes remain more vulnerable and would justify a higher allocation to Gold. Within any asset allocation policy Gold must play an important enough role, simply because a minimum […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 17 Nov 2018
Gold/USD Again Gold had a near one on one move with the USDollar. Monday $Up & Gold down. Rest of the week $Down and Gold up. The initial allocation of 60% at slightly lower levels remains. Weekly needs to turn up for the uptrend to be resumed in full force which is supported by clear daily and Monthly uptrends, hence […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 11 Nov 2018
Gold / USD A midweek accelerating USD was the major influence on PM. With weekly turning down the risk weight requires allocation to be reduced to 60% again. (USD movement vs majors determined direction during the week. A strong dollar caused early weakness in metals during the past week with a reversal in second half. Weekly is moving into higher […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 4 Nov 2018
Gold / USD USD movement vs majors determined direction during the week. A strong dollar caused early weakness in metals during the past week with a reversal in second half. Weekly is moving into higher risk territory but still strong and up. October closed up on monthly. With Daily and hourly neutral we maintain 80% allocation. (The relatively strong dollar […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 27 Oct 2018
Gold / USD The relatively strong dollar seems to be responsible for holding back a slightly more rapid advance of Gold/USD. The strong weekly uptrend and an upturning Monthly trend normally also drives ST momentum. No Change in 80% bullish risk allocation. (Both weekly and Monthly trends are Up whilst daily has turned neutral. From a risk point of view […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 21 Oct 2018
Gold / USD Both weekly and Monthly trends are Up whilst daily has turned neutral. From a risk point of view this market can strongly advance or move sideways short term. If sideways it will take time for LT time frames to show a fresh turn down, hence no change in allocation. Gold/USD Month Week Day Hour Oct 19 close […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 14 Oct 2018
Gold / USD All time frames support a confirmation of trend change at last weeks close. The allocation based on risk weight is increased from 60 to 80%. Gold/USD Month Week Day Hour Oct 12 close 1221 (1202) Trend Direction Up (N) Up (Up) Up (Up) Down Risk Weight 20 (15-20) 30-40 (25-35) 55-70 (60-65) 20-30 Allocation 80% (60%) Silver […]
Metals – FX- Indices – update – 7 Oct 2018
Gold / USD Risk has further diminished with weekly turning up and daily in uptrend. Allocation increased to 60%. Gold/USD Month Week Day Hour Oct 5 close 1202 (1192) Trend Direction N (N) Up (N) Up (Down) Up Risk Weight 15-20 (15-20) 25-35 (25-35) 60-65 (20-25) 60-70 Allocation 60% (50%) Silver / USD Last week’s rapid change of trend will […]
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