Physical Gold favors a new all time high soon | 24 Dec, 2020
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|65 (65)||44 (34)||62 (86)|
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Physical Gold 'Hold'
24 December: No change in price with Daily risk weight dropping 20 points whilst MACD and RSI in uptrends is a setup for near term advance. Price behavior between Christmas and New Year is unlikely to indicate a possible change of long term direction (Up). Strong 'hold'.
18 December: Last week's comment stands firm. Even though there may be short term speculative swaps between Gold and Bitcoin, Gold at a vastly higher market cap is yet to be beaten as the ultimate asset to protect your wealth. Small European investors, can open an account with Bitpanda and invest even the tiniest amounts in crypto and precious metals, where precious metals are 100% matched in physical form stored in Switzerland, thus not just a digital (paper) IOU. It is expected that over time Bitpanda, being an Austrian regulated crypto and Precious metals exchange will accept residents from outside of Europe. Weekly gold/usd risk confirmed its developing low risk into last week when turning up and to now closing any potential bearish divergence in the shorter term time scale. Monthly risk may even be pushed into green again at year end and continue to meet our long term forecast. No Change.
Gold/Euro live price
24 December: Dollar weakness this quarter has kept Gold relatively under pressure going into 2021. Where Gold/EUR has been very strong earlier on taking out the 20122 highs much earlier we should expect the Gold/Euro price to start advancing again and even with a weaker dollar exchange rate. The long term picture is a little mixed because the risk weight trend is pointing down. However, we are tradinbg at 15% above the 2012 top.'Hold'.
18 December: Especially the medium term risk picture is bullish for gold. With Weekly risk weight turning up last week we would expect this move to last and turn the Long term back up again within 2 to 4 weeks. Both Relative strength and Moving average convergence / divergence support the Medium and Long term outlook. Obviously all asset classes feel the mostly positive pressure of worldwide cheap money, but it is very very speculative and physical gold therefore is the lower risk protection vehicle for European based investors. No Change
Gold/British Pound live price
24 December: We expect Gold to perform very strongly versus GBP, even if Sterling gets a temporary speculative boost from a temporary and unwarranted trust in ta yet to fully specify this Brexit deal. Gold is a strong 'hold' for Sterling based taxpayers.
18 December: Story is the same for Gold vs GBP. Technical tools almost never give signals as to how quick markets will move once a new direction is chosen. There are many cross market and or currency parameters to be considered. UK based investors, except 2010 and 2011 speculators, have never been disappointed since Gordon Brown had little gold left to sell in the early 2000's. Gold must now be a patient 'hold' into the outcome of a monetary reset of some digital asset backed sort in coming years or earlier.