Physical Gold is the basis for low risk protection | 18 Dec, 2020
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|65 (64)||34 (20)||86 (68)|
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Physical Gold low risk protection
18 December: Last week's comment stands firm. Even though there may be short term speculative swaps between Gold and Bitcoin, Gold at a vastly higher market cap is yet to be beaten as the ultimate asset to protect your wealth. Small European investors, can open an account with Bitpanda and invest even the tiniest amounts in crypto and precious metals, where precious metals are 100% matched in physical form stored in Switzerland, thus not just a digital (paper) IOU. It is expected that over time Bitpanda, being an Austrian regulated crypto and Precious metals exchange will accept residents from outside of Europe. Weekly gold/usd risk confirmed its developing low risk into last week when turning up and to now closing any potential bearish divergence in the shorter term time scale. Monthly risk may even be pushed into green again at year end and continue to meet our long term forecast. No Change.
11 December: Gold rallied nicely from last but failed to close on a more positive note. Our weekly risk weight turned bullish whilst short term daily turned down. The multi year long term picture is a solid uptrend that hasn't showed any sign of bearish divergence in the long term tools. Besides the need to always hold physical gold in times of severe uncertainty, today's picture is confirming that historic principle. As Medium term Weewkly and Long term Monthly have not yet shown that critical bearish divergence signal, the technical confirmation is still leading and offers a low risk long term hold. No Change.
Gold/Euro live price
18 December: Especially the medium term risk picture is bullish for gold. With Weekly risk weight turning up last week we would expect this move to last and turn the Long term back up again within 2 to 4 weeks. Both Relative strength and Moving average convergence / divergence support the Medium and Long term outlook. Obviously all asset classes feel the mostly positive pressure of worldwide cheap money, but it is very very speculative and physical gold therefore is the lower risk protection vehicle for European based investors. No Change
11 December: We repeat last week's comment. At the close of dec 11, the USD/EUR exchange rate is looking technically weaker for the USD, which can of course quickly turn short term on any 'traders' news. Gold is a long term hold for Euro based investors.
Gold/British Pound live price
18 December: Story is the same for Gold vs GBP. Technical tools almost never give signals as to how quick markets will move once a new direction is chosen. There are many cross market and or currency parameters to be considered. UK based investors, except 2010 and 2011 speculators, have never been disappointed since Gordon Brown had little gold left to sell in the early 2000's. Gold must now be a patient 'hold' into the outcome of a monetary reset of some digital asset backed sort in coming years or earlier.
11 December: Gold looks a little stronger vs GBP than ag USD and EUR following renewed pressure Sterling pressure as a result of a possible No Deal Brexit the Aussie way. Gold remains a long term hold for UK tax based investors.