Physical Gold pressure is not a concern | 19 Febr 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|63 (64)||29 (31)||15 (59)|
Total allocation 50% (55%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
19 February close: Yes, Gold weakened further last week and is likely to remain weaker versus Silver and Platinum in the longer term. This is why we have re balanced our portolio to initially include Silver and also Platinum since last year. The hottest narrative is that precious metals have become a byproduct type fun play for those making millions in Crypto. See our crypto update this week. Our longer term prediction is that physical Gold will prove to remain the most solid and most natural representation of trust and real value. It may be replaced at some point in the near future as a real barter instrument by some internationally recognized and accepted crypto token which serves as backing and/or currency of exchange. L'histoire se répète, even if it takes a generation to confirm. The Long term Gold trend that found its intermdiary bottom in September of 1999 is far from finished and can be the only universal solution to absorb the massive and increasing financial imbalances since the 1970's. Why? Because all major countries own substantial gold and have exclusive government powers to tax for any shortcomings. No Change.
12 February close: Our existing Gold position is just over 2 years young with some assets established back in early 2016. This position is fundamental to protect against the risk of MMT adoption, Crypto regulation and Fiat currency flooding in general. We expect Gold to advance strongly and the event of some very strong price action feels closer than ever. Silver and Platinum would benefit exponentially in this scenario. Most investors/traders can be easily blinded by parabolic income generated from near zero finance funding and hyperspeculation in crypto. The primary reason for owning physical gold, silver and platinum is that risk of major undesired financial consequences from unprecendented Central Bank intervention policies to control money supply and inflation in this present-day scenario of exponentially increasing government spending by all major economies, now largely influenced by Covid-19 expenses.
Jan 31 comment
The Quarterly risk to price chart above shows risk dropping to 78 with minimal price change. This is an interim quarterly Gold risk position at the close of January 2021.
This chart cannot be used for timing investment decisions or trading. The observation is that we may well see several peaks during a much larger price advance, similar to longer periods in history.
Gold/Euro live price
19 February 2021 close: Fiat currency fluctuations have become much less significant relative to the major investment categories like stocvks, bonds and soon probably crypto. The Gold narrative therefore applies to Gold versus any other than US$ major currency.
12 February 2021 close: The short term picture of where the Gold price versus Euro will move is not certain. We could easily see further weakness for instance of the dollar gets a knock. The long term picture still looks very favourable technically as risk weight on Weekly and Monthly time scales have come down substantially with relatively little price change. As Gold/Euro is still 50% above the late 2018 level that cushion looks pretty safe besides the same fundamental reasons to maintain a sizeable physical gold for Euro based investors.
Gold/British Pound live price
19 February 2021 close: Fiat currency fluctuations have become much less significant relative to the major investment categories like stocks, bonds and soon probably crypto. The Gold narrative therefore applies to Gold versus any other than US$ major currency including Pound Sterling. Against GBP Gold looks to get an earlier signal to resume its long term uptrend.
12 February 2021 close: The current long term cycle of Gold vs Sterling started around 700 in 2015. The technical picture is very much the same for Gold vs all major currencies which means that the effect of exchange rate movements on the gold price is likely to be less relevant than a movement of potential role of gold as an asset class in the bigger macro economic picture. No Change. GBP based investors 'HODL GOLD'. The present relatively depressed price level looks attractive to establish or re-establish a core position with physical gold. Today physical gold can still be bought at paper prices plus a small margin.