Gold will be the driver for explosive Silver and Platinum prices | 5 Febr 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous week in brackets)
|Au Trend||↑ (↓)||↓ (↓ )||↓ (↓)|
|Au % Risk
|64 (63)||30 (35)||22 (37)|
Total allocation 55% (50%)
Physical Gold , Physical GOLD, PHYSICAL ONLY
5 February close: Physical Gold looks and feels very strong inside a manipulated paper market. Manipulation is a reality that is driven by a large US component. There are so many questions that haven't been answered with the number question being: How much Gold does the USA really own from its own trading book? The USA will be able to drive a hard bargain with countries still keeping Gold in storage on US soil and if there is indeed a shortage of physical LBMA 99,5% purity gold at their end. And they surely do know. The US Treasury only need a very very small inner circle to keep track of this. We would expect the physical gold to paper gold disconnect to materialize sooner rather than later which is partly due to what is happening in this new world of fiat for crypto world. Whilst crypto is more likely to stay within the crypto space. That can and prabably will be seen by offical bodies as the virus that must be killed. The problem is that it can't. The crypto world is on an unstoppable journey and precious metals will do catchup as a major monetary reset begins to rumour in ernest and unfolds at a time we cannot predict. Silver and Platinum will see prices soar due to their much lower level of liquidity combined with huge acquisition margins. A modern day mining rush will also unfold. No Change to the larger fundamental precious metals wealth protection allocation. Hodl Physical Gold, Silver and Platinum.
31 January 2021: The January close on Jan 29 was slightly lower at 1846. This major asset class will be influenced by developments in the crypto space. As funds appear to moving more between speculation and safety by smaller investors. Our observations on markets with runaway and breakaway gaps has a bearing on Gold because we see several gaps still open since mid 2020 in the Gold/Bitcoin price ratio. That ratio has obviously dropped with rocket speed toward a recent low of 0.045. As we explained earlier in the week here an attempt to fill those gaps can be made and are even very likely in spite of the most recent Bitcoin embrace by Bridgewater. The market ultimately decides and forces can be strong in either direction. What this means for Gold in its own right is hard to predict, but we remain very positive and fully committed to our long gold position as long as medium and long term risk weight haven't even begun to approach technical bearish divergence. No Change.
The Quarterly risk to price chart above shows risk dropping to 78 with minimal price change. This is an interim quarterly Gold risk position at the close of January 2021.
This chart cannot be used for timing investment decisions or trading. The observation is that we may well saee several peaks during a much larger price advance, similar to longer periods in history.
Gold/Euro live price
5 February 2021 close: In the larger scheme currency fluctuation is not going to make muuch difference. One week the dollar will be strong and weak the next. Gold we be significantly stronger vs Euro as the international fight for a monetary solution unfolds. Euro based investors simply must own physical gold, silver and platinum. Given a chance, the precious metals will strengthen soon enough to re-allocate into other hard assets to pass on to a next generation before a major inflationary cycle gets underway. Gold Euro Monthly and Weekly risk weight are below 25 and offer a chance to add. Europeans are best using the Bitpanda exchange facility to park any excess bank balances in Precious Metals, Fiat and crypto. No leverage.
29 January 2021 close: Gold looks a little stronger against Euro than against USD short term, indicating a possible strenghtening of the greenback. The longer timescale risk trends are down at this moment combined with relatively little price change. No Change.
Gold/British Pound live price
5 February 2021 close: Opportunity still knocks to invest even more in physical gold, silver and platinum as fiat GBP continued its relatively strong performance last week. UK tax based wealth preservation investors should sit tight. Your time will come as it always has the past 50 inflation years.
29 January 2021 close: GBP has been remarkably resilient with traders looking to buy sterling on any dip. As this continues Gold looks technically a little weaker against GBP, but the broader picture still points towards a much weaker Pound sterling in the medium to long term. This has become a tougher call but unless 1320 breaks decisively we remain a strong 'Gold hold' for Uk based investors.