Gold/USD risk prediction | 22 October 2021
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
(Previous update in brackets)
|Au Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|Au % Risk
|30 (28)||55 (50)||65 (78)|
Portfolio allocation 40% (40%)
Physical Gold: Nature's currency
22 October: Another week and another shaky Friday price action. The technical picture is far from clear short and medium term, whilst the long term quarterly print still favors upside with an initial target close to the parallel upper trendline at around $2300. Inflation fears and data confirmation can easioly take Gold into steep log scale territory. And the necessity to log scale Gold;'s price chart means inflation! Monthly risk weight is down but at the slightly higher 30% level. This is a mild bullish signal for a poitential long term trend change to 'up'. No Change to our Long term Hold.
15 October: The latest week saw another sharp and sudden drop on the Friday, but Gold is still holding its own. The technical picture looks ever safer for gold as being the best or better non speculative wealth preserving alternative to holding cash in the bank. Gold isn't oversold or anything either in the short or longer term time intervals, but it feels safe. Only short term time scales may look a little toppish after every rally and then correct again. The loudest narrative is that gold is dead in favour of the 'new gold' crypto scene. That is why we do not change to our long term hold at 12% of total portfolio. Patience will be rewarded either by being reasonably protected against financial market turmoil or excess real return on investment.