Platinum USD still looking firm | 30 April


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1198 (1229)
PT Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
PT % Risk
Weight
83 (83) 58 (59) 60 (61)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 30% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

30 April 2021 close: The Platinum/USD technical picture is different from the Gold/Platinum ratio below which still eyes more favorable for Platinum. Last week ended near the lows and caused all times frames to turn negative. The key indicator is now long term which has not developed technical topping action at a true high risk level. Primary bull cycles typically require such high risk weight percentages. This looks to be many months away still and we may see some relative price erosion versus USD over coming weeks or months. There are no oversold signbal for this pair and Daily looks a bit weak with a risk weight in the 60% range. Comfortable though with the precious metals allocation. No Change.

23 April 2021 close: Platinum USD suffered during the week from a bit of profit taking and came back into shape on Friday whilst Gold and Silver sold off a bit. The general trend looks firm and we would be looking for an interim peak if the monthly reaches an extreme high risk weight percentage supprted by a short term extreme risk or weekly risk weight showing divergence in its own right. We have seen neither hence comfortable with the Pt portfolio. Long term quarterly risk is up a touch resuming its uptrend. No Change.

PlatinumUSD (Interim) Quarterly 30 April


GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
144.75 (147.60)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
9 (8) 20 (23) 66 (57)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 30% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Daily Ratio 30 April

The 1.40-1.50 Gold/Platinum consolidation range since February is being extended as the higher risk weight level upturn two weeks ago looks more bullish short term. Daily however is beginning to diverge vis a vis the next weekly time scale putting virtual resistance on the ratio price.

 

 

Weekly Ratio 30 April

Weekly risk weight turned down again following its nearest higher timescale. With Daily risk up, one expects a short term resumption of the downtrend.

 

Monthly Ratio 30 April

Monthly risk weight level closed 1% above last week and still down for the month. An extended price consolidation could develop a Gold/Platinum correction within the current primary trend of slightly larger magnitude but with Weekly down there is counter pressure. As this is a major platinum price reversal cycle that started in March 2020, Monthly risk would typically diverge into a more bullish pattern before we reach our forecast bottom of closer to 1:1.

Qrtly Ratio 30 April

Quarterly interim risk weight closed April at 16%. We are now in the first major down cycle since the very long cycle between 1981 and 2008. Now after 13 years of Platinum weakness we should expect this current trend to develop an interim bottom in the next 2 quarters and thereafter a strong and volatile range bound consolidation before this Gold/Platinum ratio drops towards its target subpar price zone. This could be years away still although another Black Swan event may poils the timing of such move. No Change.

 


Daily Ratio 23 April

Daily divergence  vs Weekly and Monthly risk was being reduced on Friday as Platinum picked up steam after a lackluster week on a mild downslope. Trend is down and we could see another pause at around 1.40 to extend the more complex correction that started in February. Short term downtrend is most likely to comntinue into the coming week. No Change

 

 

Weekly Ratio 23 April

Weekly risk is pushing Gold/Platinum into price consolidation. The Risk chart above can go either way, but with Daily in downtrend the more likely scenario is sideways risk this coming week.

 

Monthly Ratio 23 April

The sharp downtrend in Monthly risk hasn't finished. On May 1st our algo will drop of the fourteenth month which is March 2020 which was the peak month for the Gold/Pt ratio but still closing strong at 2.20. We would expect to see a bit more pressure before a more medium term correction takes place. No Change in staying with the current downtrend.

Qrtly Ratio 23 April

We would expect the current risk trend to dive close or just below 10% before turning. This probably would require a ratio level of 1.35 to be printed after a lower daily bottom is registered. Sometime later in May perhaps. Patience to stay with Platinum until it reaches  the desired minimum equilibrium level of 1:1. Our Platinum allocation and this specific analysis is to not deny the opportunity to benefit from the huge divergence that developed over the past 8 years. Physical platinum, which is the heaviest (precious) metal in nature, therefore is a critical and low risk hold.

 



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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