At the Dec 18 close, the Gold to Platinum ratio continued its pause in the longer term downtrend at around 1.82 whilst Daily risk is shooting up (43 to 70) into a bearish divergence with Weekly and Monthly. That divergence building should materialize with renewed pressure in favor of Platinum in the next few weeks. No Change.

Weekly risk marginally rosem whilst there is room to decline towards 0 again upon a strong bearish divergence with the Daily trend. A few daily Platinum USD closings above 1037 would increase the chance of a more rapid erosion of the Gold Platinum ratio level.

Monthly risk is updated weekly and is therefore an interim risk level. Monthly risk is still in a strong downtrend with a short two weeks until Year-end. Even if Month-end shows this trend turning positive the nominal level can be expected to reach a much lower risk level with a corresponding much lower Gold Platinum ratio.

Interim Quarterly risk weight is still 53, like last week. This is a strong downtrend and as clearly visible on the long term 50 year historic Gold Platinum chart, risk seems to really move from deep low risk oversold to extreme high risk levels before reaching the end of the trend. We are far away from such observation, hence confidence in the outlook for a much lower Gold Platinum ratio sometime in 2021.

This week we got that expected pause after a first recovery phase of Platinum versus Gold. And with a relatively small 3% retracement, Daily risk jumped from 0 to 43.
We may expect a bit more pressure on Platinum, but at the same time, once a movement starts it will be hard to trade if the market decides to follow through. If the physical position is large enough to match at least one Platinum futures contract, trading may be possible and somewhat beneficial. We prefer however no leverage in our risk approach. This reduces opportunity of course and massively reduces risk of loss.

Weekly also bottomed last week at 0 and rose some 10 risk weight points. It may or may not continue to correct and if it does, the Daily is likely to shoot up further and develop that bearish divergence,d setting up for the next move towards a 1.50 ratio.

Monthly risk is updated weekly and is therefore an interim risk level. End of month risk levels are critical to better understanding a turn in the risk weight trend. (Note that this month end price condition is a personal preference in how to read charts and technical tools and allow better comparison against higher and lower time scales). This weeks correcton caused the interim Monthly risk weight to rise a little from 34 to 39 and maintaining a strong downtrend in the process. We have added the risk weight price points only for information.

Interim Quarterly risk weight is now at 53, up from an interim level of 49 last week. As with the Monthly comment this level emphasizes the strong downtrend of this ratio according to the quarterly trend and should at some future date reach its equilibrium with Gold of around 1.00. Risk weight only price points shown for information