Platinum's 2020 at $1072 close sets the predicted direction for 2021 | 31 Dec 2020
Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly (LT-M) - Medium Term Weekly (MT-W) - Short Term Daily (ST-D) - and Hourly (not shown) data.
PLATINUM FORECAST
(Previous week in brackets)
| Platinum USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1072 (1026) ↑ 4,5% |
||||||
| PT Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
| Pt % Risk Weight |
87 (76) | 84 (80) | 93 (60) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 55% (50%) |
Pt:30% | Ag:40% | Au:30% | |||
Platinum / USD live price
Platinum comment
31 December close: The last week of 2020 produced a very nice 10% rally, a little stronger than Gold and Silver. This supports our strong view, since we re-allocated into this investment back in Q2 2020, that Platinum has some way to go and will find its equilibrium again vis a vis Gold. our Pt hold now represents about 17% of total assets which feels like a sound and very acceptable risk. The position is now running at 15% above entry providing a cushion. This metal has been volatile, but having broken that major downtrend from the 2011 peak. More importantly, Weekly and Monthly risk weight time scales are in uptrends and have yet to produce bearish divergence, which they always do before a major trend change becomes fact. This market has price and time on its hands. No Change.
24 December close: Platinum has been struggling to close above the 1037 level as confirmed by a longer expected correction period of the Gold Platinum ratio below. Weekly risk weight gives mixed signal turning down into Christmas, butg Daily turned up in neutral risk territory whilst Monthly is still in a stronger uptrend. Relative strength index has miles to go to the upside. Pressure on Precious metals is partly influenced by the extreme verbal marketing of Bitcoin in alternative media whilst most other major crypto's have underperformed last week. The overall technical picture still looks firm for Platinum/USD going into 2021. No Change.
GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
| Gold Platinum ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176 (183) | ||||||
| Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
36 (40) | 8 (16) | 01 (73) | |||
| PM Distribution Total allocation 55% (50%) |
Pt:30% | Ag:40% | Au:30% | |||
Gold / Platinum Ratio Charts
Daily Ratio 31/12/20
Daily risk rushed down from 73 to near zero filling the divergence gap with longer term timescales and ratio dropping 4% to close at 1.76. These short term movements, even on a weekly timescale are not going to concern us whilst Monthly and Quarterly risk remain in strong downtrends. International financial conditions do not allow for short term risk away from the core precious metals portfolio. No Change to our longer term objective of 1.00
Weekly Ratio 31/12/20
Weekly risk weight shed 8 points on the 4% drop during the short final week of the year 2020. It means that this lower risk level could develop a consolidation price range between 1.70 and 1.85, before following the longer term trends down again. Without bullish divergence in own time scale we remain fully committed to 'hold' until much closer to our target of 1:1.
Monthly Ratio 31/12/20
Monthly risk weight shed just 4 points to 36 and remains in a strong downtrend. This Monthly risk is an important driver and we need patience for this indicator to offer further direction and in relation to the shorter term time scales.
Qrtly Ratio as at 31/12/20
Quarterly risk weight ended the year with marginal change at 51 and has some way to go. The most likely time frame for an initial quarterly bottom is several quarters away depending on size of the move. No Change to favoured Pt portolio
24 December comment:
Daily Ratio 24/12/20
Daily risk of Gold/Platinum ratio rushed into the low 90's before turning down midweek. This created a bearish divergence between Daily and Weekly time scales. History tells us that there is a good chance for priced to stay within a narrow range between 1.80 and 1.90 with a slight upside bias from the current 1.83 ratio level due to weekly risk being in a low risk uptrend. The divergence can then start to close into the new year 2021. This is all fairly short term which is inconclusive during a thin year-end trading market.
Weekly Ratio 24/12/20
Weekly risk weight added 5 points to close the shorter week at 16. Nornal technical behavior could sede it climb a bit more before turning back again under the weight of Daily risk coming off.
Monthly Ratio 24/12/20
Monthly risk weight shows a stronger downtrend with the interim risk weight 2 points higher on Dec 24. This time scale indicator is still leading and should drive the ratio down further within 1 to 3 months.
Qrtly Ratio as at 24/12/20
Interim Quarterly risk weight is also slightly higher emphasizing a stronger Gold Platinum ratio downtrend still in force. If Quarterly takes over from Monthly as a leading indicator we may need to wait at least 4 to 6 months before we see a real intermediate long term price bottom. For now there's no change in our long term outlook towards Gold/Platinum 1:1 again.