Platinum still forecast to reach much higher levels | 2 July


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1090 (1111)
PT Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
PT % Risk
Weight
64 (75) 20 (20) 39 (45)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

2 July 2021 What risk can we expect with Platinum for Q3 2021? Looking at the daily chart we may have completed a large ABC correction since February 2021. In Elliott terms this looks like a correction of lower degree that hasn't completed its first advance which means strong upside potential. The new week made the risk weight trend turn from down to up at the 20% level. As Both daily and weekly risk turned up last week the market seems to seek more upside. Whilst Monthly risk still requires a new high to at least signal an intermediary top we remain confident on our Platinum allocation. Because a higher degree advance started in March 2020 under Covid influence, quarterly risk weight can still be consideren an uptrend after double bullish divergence being signalled after that low last year. Thus positive on a larger scale and patient with the Platinum allocation which only has run the shorter part of this primary uptrend.

25 June 2021 Daily Platinum turned up strongly from a support trend breaking low at $1019 to finsh the week above $1100 again. Weekly risk is at 20% whereas the $850 correction low in October 2020 was at 30%. This lower risk weight coupled with a higher price often plays out as bullish divergence. This keeps us in the physical Platinum 'Hold'. Monthly risk has yet to produce a peaking formation typical for a longer term trend. Platinum is just making a weak attempt to return to the 10 year breakout level around 900. It is possible to go there but seems unlikely given the too frequent positive momentum.

PlatinumUSD (Interim) Quarterly 2 July


GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
1.6390 (1.6010)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
30 (23) 73 (73) 50 (27)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Daily Ratio 2 July

The Platinum recovery stalled last week but found some fresh impuls on Thursday Friday. On the Daily chart we need yet to see a signal of an more serious intermediate Gold/Platinum ratio bottom. Based on this daily chart formation we are still in a correction of the larger move and that low has yet to materialize.

Weekly Ratio 2 July

The latest weekly chart position on risk weight across our tools may still develop a new intermediate high before the downtrend resumes. We confidently remain with our good 1/3rd (physical) Platinum and equal to (physical) Gold allocation.

Monthly Ratio 2 July

Monthly risk weight needs to make a real bottom either in deep low risk territory like, < 5% or bullish divergence associated with a lower Gold/Platinum ratio. This has yet to materialize and supports our overall position.

Qrtly Ratio 2 July

Quarterly risk weight is down into the new quarter and picking up the existing long term trend. That trend may take a few years to transpire, like the 1973-1979 move which resulted in a 50% drop of the Gold/PT ratio. A similar drop, probably on shorter time scale would trigger our long term equilibrium objective. As that happens Equilibrium or the multi decade average is then likely to be broken in the process before turning back up again. Physical Platinum therefor is likely to remain a strong hold in our long term portfolio.


Daily Ratio 25 June

Platinum recovered later than expected but the move was 6% in favor of Platinum last week. The move from 1.70 to 1.60 was fairly sudden and developed a strong risk weight downtrend ending at 27%. The Daily risk trend is always volatile and is not finished.

Weekly Ratio 25 June

Weekly risk weight showed bearish divergence between 3 weeks of data and has now started a downtrend which could itself correct but needs to go much lower before this ratio bottoms again.

Monthly Ratio 25 June

With weekly moving to close its bearish divergence versus monthly, Monthly would need to develop bullish ratio divergence in its own timeframe first before a major trend bottom is signalled.

Qrtly Ratio 25 June

Quarterly risk weight has corrected back into its original trend and we'd like to see it closer to the 10% level before a Gold/Platinum ratio bottom can be called. This still looks to be well into the future. The Gold/Platinum analysis serves to confirm and continue holding an equal allocation of physical Platinum.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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