Owning Platinum is as good as Gold | 26 Feb 2021


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1127 (1188)
↓5.1%
PT Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
PT % Risk
Weight
84 (87) 72 (84) 8 (52)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (55%)
Pt:35% Ag:35% Au:30%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

5 March 2021 close: The rapid drop of Platinum was to be expected given the sharp reversal of Silver following continued gold weakness. Daily risk is in deep oversold condition but not yet finish. Divergence between Weekly and Monthly is evident. Medium Term Weekly and Long term Monthly risk weight haven't yet developed bearish risk to price divergence in their own timescale. This is the most likely scenario before Medium or Long term price peak for Platinum can be called. Olatinum is our favored metal at this point and we may look to re-allocate a bit of gold and silver into platinum. Largely keep the precious metals portfolio balanced.

26 February 2021 close: Platinum had its first more serious correction since the long awaited bottom was reached in March 2020. Between then and today Platinum has recoved 30% versus Gold where gold is the best reference to determine relative market strength. Our initial target was 1037 and our next target is $1500. Long term risk weight has come into the higher risk zone which may last for a long period during major uptrends expecting long term time scale bearish divergence before the trend ends. This is a long term play. No Change.


GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
151 (146)
↑ 3.4%
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
13 (14) 22 (12) 97 (43)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (55%)
Pt:35% Ag:35% Au:30%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Daily Ratio 5 March

The correction of Platinum versus Gold the past week creates bearish divergence. We expect the ratio to make up a few percent of the recent rise in line with the main long term trend. We may use this rally to re-allocate a small percentage of gold towards Platinum and adding a bit more Platinum weight to the precious metals portfolio. The ratio will surely reach a level much close tot 1:1 in the foreseeable future.

 

Weekly Ratio 5 March

Weekly risk weight pushed a little higher which could drive the ratio higher if it were the only risk indicator. With Daily showing bearish divergence vis a vis its longer term timescales and with Monthly still strongly down we stay fully committed to Platinum moving higher in due course.

Monthly Ratio 5 March

Monthly risk weight is slightly lower at 13. 49 versus 13.80 last week. Even though the ratio price is up, monthly risk weight on a relative strength basis is still in its primary down trend with quarterly risk weight now being the main trend driver.

Qrtly Ratio 5 March

The interim quarterly risk weight has created even more space for a further weakening of the ratio given the Interim price rally. Risk weight price is now back up to 30 from 25 last week and still showing a net strong and leading downtrend. We expect risk weight of the Gold to Platinum ratio to drop into a deep oversold range with a matching price moving closer to our forecast target of 1:1 and before a more serious price reaction. Our tchnical analysis is a matter of odds which weigh in favor of Platinum. In case all precious metals continue moving lower initially, we will get better odds on a reallocation opportunity, which still looks more in favor of owning physical Platinum.


Daily Ratio 26 Feb

Platinum paused the steady recovery from 9 years of weakness for most of last week.  Platinum fell to an all time low of 2.46 x less than gold and reached 1.36 the previous week. A 44% recovery from peak to bottom thusfar. The apparent rapid advance of Daily risk weight llke this is a pause reaching for bearish divergence between Short and longer time scales. Physical Platinum is a solid low risk hold in the present economic regime.

 

 

 

Weekly Ratio 26 Feb

Weekly risk weight is oversold and showing bullish divergence. With Daily starting to diverge and Monthly and Quarterly still in strong downtrends, we do not consider Weekly risk weight a threat to the main trend of Platinum recovery versus Gold.

Monthly Ratio 26 Feb

26/2: Monthly risk weight dropped to 9% last week and is now at 14%. This is not a change of trend interestingly enough as the 9% was  an interim monthly reading. This trend is still down and has more room to bottom at a lower level before a longer correction may take place. There will not be a straight line to par and beyond with gold, although it is theorectically possible. Let's see how March develops. For now it looks as if Platinum can hold its relative strenght for a few more months.

Qrtly Ratio 26 Feb

26/2: The Interim quarterly risk weight reading is slightly higher than last week (25 vs 24) which is the result of a higher close this week relative to a larger price range. This trend is down and will pause at some point, which may even be soon.  The direction is for Risk weight to need much more time to bottom which requires the ratio to continue its recovery towards par during 2021 and beyond.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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